Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Crude

Crude continued retracing Friday's beat down. Range was $2.71 on volume that was right at average.

Here is one way of looking at today's price action. It is unclear to me if the leg off the 70.71 L was a [5]th wave failure, or a [B] leg. My guess is that it was indeed the [5]th.

This whole mess off the 68.02 L can be counted several different ways. I'm not going to spend the rest of my life trying to figure it out.

The important part is how this structure fits into the overall picture. Unfortunately, that doesn't get any easier. If we had 5 up from the 67.05 L then we have to have another 5, it's that simple.

Just like determining if we had 5 down from the 72.90 H. If we did, we got 5 more coming, which is probably the case.

Whenever we finish this sub-minuette b wave (if we haven't already), we should see a c down. If this last leg higher is married to anything to the left of it, it can be counted complete.

If it's a loner, then it is the first leg of a zigzag. If so, I would need to ratchet down the degrees by one.

Targets would be [C] = [A] at 72.76, [C] = 61.8% of [A] at 71.76.

Anybody notice the price action in the grains today? Holy cow. The corn market was up over 9% on humongous volume. Did the Chinese Govt come out and say that everybody had to eat corn 3 times a day or what?

Beans and wheat had strong days as well. Not sure what's up with the grains. Maybe someone would be kind enough to fill me in.


2 comments:

  1. Vo, I pulled up a daily chart on Beans, all trends remain down below 977(in my opinion)it appears to have found support at 900 which is where the Short term trend flipped up on 03/31.We'll have to wait and see if this current bounce on short term support can be sustained. BTW, nice trade on the ES the other day.

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  2. Thanks for the comments Treph.

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