ES

ES posted another winning day, stretching the rubber band even tighter. Range was a respectable 19.50 handles on better than average volume.

I was fairly confident that the micro degree [1] wave was a 5 and not a 3, suggesting an impulse instead of a diagonal.

Here is one way of interpreting the count. This is the 15m pit session chart again. I don't really care for the sub-micro (3) wave, but structure isn't always pretty.

It's not completely clear if [3] has finished yet or not. It may have some additional work left, but it's close.

Structure has certainly put in a nice channel for us. When this channel breaks - we will know that (iii) has completed. At that point, we will draw a new channel from the wave (iv) price extreme. This assumes that my assessment of structure is correct.

Here is an update on the potential wolfe wave. We have hit the upper boundary line with today's price action.

If this pattern is in play, and I have my doubts, then we should see decisive downside price action.

Target will be the the lower boundary line connecting 1 and 4.

Unfortunately, I don't believe structure is suggesting such a move yet - at least to the target line.

Just in case, I put on a short-line via SPY puts. I have some cheap September 108's and got some October 108's near the close.

Whether this pattern plays out or not, I expect both positions to be profitable. Why would I put them on if I didn't - right?

Did you folks notice the VIX action today? Up nicely over 1%. Perhaps it's expiry related.

The TRIN basically moved up all day as well, while the put/call ratio moved lower.

Bottom line - We should finish up [3] and then [4] in short order. Once [5] completes we should see a more meaningful correction (I hope).

The ivth of lessor starts around 1044 and goes to about 1030. Since (ii) was a deep and sharp correction, my guess is that (iv) will be shallow and flat (guideline of alternation).

VO would be real happy with 1044 and elated if it happened by Friday :)