Weekend Update #2

30 YR BOND
The bond complex finished lower this past week.

That's about the only intelligent thing I can say about this market.

I have no opinion on this market. I need to see additional price action to get a grasp on structure.

CRUDE
The crude market shook off the big reversal day last Friday and headed higher.

As pointed out last week, we had a nice cycle low that came in on Monday, helping to stop the downside pressure.

This is a new interpretation of structure. Things are really messy here and this is just one view.

This shows a minute [b] wave combination. This assumes that (w) completed at the 74.55 H and (x) finished at the 67.05 L. Price would currently be tracing the (y) wave to finish [b].

If this assessment is correct, price should not hang around here very long. Price will need to immediately start impulsing higher, as it would be in its iiird wave.

Critical support comes in at 68.02. Should that level be breached, then something else is obviously going on.

iii = i at 73.87. iii = 161.8% of i at 77.49.

There is also the possibilty that (x) will take on the form of a triangle. There is also the possibilty that we are working on a bigger minute wave [iv] triangle. I could give you several more scenarios, but you get the picture.

KoolsTools shows that we should have a minor cycle peak on Thursday.

All prices basis continuous contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar continued losing ground again this week - imagine that.

Price took out the 76.325 L Thursday on a intraday basis. I will assume that the ending diagonal pattern, that was talked about last week, is invalidated.

My guess at current structure is that minute [iii] is extending and price put in a minuette degree (i) at the 78.085 L. Notice that price supported at the 161.8% projection of (i).

If (iii) has finished at the 76.23 L, then price should not get any higher than 78.085 on this retracement.

Following this (iv) wave, we should see continued downside price action.

Bottom line - structure suggests that the poor dollar is not done going down. I don't believe you can rule out new multi-year lows under 73.667.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The yellow metal put in another positive week, reaching a high of 1025.80 before pairing some of its gains.

As mentioned last week, resistance was expected at 1015 and 1028, both previous pivots from the left side of the chart.

It is unclear, but we may have finished minuette (v), and thus minute [iii], at the 1025.80 H. If this is the case, we should expect some type of slow complex corrective for [iv].

The 23.6% retracement is at 1004.50, while the 38.2% comes in at 991.40

Thursday is scheduled for a cycle peak (KoolsTools). A better peak cycle may come in on 9/28. This is taken from 4/17 and 7/8.

I took 1/2 my long call position off Wednesday at a 261.8% projection at 1020, booking $1.65 in profit.

I'm not completely sure of the degrees, so I thought it made sense to take some off the table. Will leave the rest on, as I do believe that we see higher price.

All prices basis December contract.