Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Crude

Crude chopped its way higher for a nice gain today. Range was $2.42 on slightly better than average volume.

It appears that crude finished an ending diagonal to a double zigzag to complete a sub-minuette degree b leg. This is one way to interpret the structure off the 68.02 L.

I'm not real thrilled with this as C legs generally don't sport ED's (p. 37 Elliott Wave Principle). I am satisfied that there indeed was a diagonal.

That's why I have a bullish alternate count at the bottom. The problem is that only Houdini and EWI can get a 5 out of that mess off the lows. I actually prefer the bullish count because it helps my daily view.

Unfortunately, I don't believe that is what structure is telling us.

I am basically convinced that the bigger picture is turning a triangle. The waves have that choppy, hard to discern form to them. The triangle interpretation has its own issues. I will cover that this weekend.

So, if my preferred count of b ending at the 72.56 H is correct, we should see impulsive action to the downside. If we don't immediately get that, something is wrong with my assessment.




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