Happy Independence Day!

As a nation we are now 233 years old (2009 - 1776). Does this Fibonacci number portend anything special? Something good or bad? Raymond Merriman talks about how the "solar return" for this year is a very powerful one in his weekly update, which I would encourage you to checkout here. I'm surprised that I have not heard much out there in regards to this important number. Let me know if you come across something good.

How's the job's market looking?

Today, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) decreased by 467,000 in June. The stock market declined sharply on the news. Today's chart puts that decline into perspective by comparing job losses during the current economic recession (solid red line) to that of the last recession (dashed gold line) and the average recession from 1954-2006 (dashed blue line). As today's chart illustrates, the current job market has suffered losses that are nearly three times as much as the average. In fact, if this were an average recession/job loss cycle, the number of jobs would have begun to increase three months ago. (July 2, 2009)

Courtesy of Chart of the Day

Very interesting read about AIG

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More market manipluation talk

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Wow, this pig was sold today, although not unexpected. It's been awhile since we have seen this kind of distribution. They could have saved us the agony of having to sit through 6 hours of nothing for 30 minutes of action. Such is summer trading. As I type this, ES is still selling, however, its catching a bid as the 88.6% of our upmove from 884.25 is giving it the ol' college try.

Crude Triangle?

A potential triangle is forming in crude. It still has a lot of work left should it trace out. Something to watch.

ES

ES is following the same pattern again today...early action then it puts you to sleep. The C leg has played out as expected. Looks like it has finally broken its down channel and backtested it successfully. Is C done? Not sure, but the fib relationship is there. I'm currently long in hopes that this EWT flat has played out completely.

Edit: stopped out



Here is an updated chart that I posted last night. The bearish wedge did exactly what it was supposed to do - breakdown.










Another reason to think our down action is about finished. Nice RSI divergence down here.

Crude

Crude sold off in Globex and has bounced nicely after backtesting the down channel. If crude has started its C leg, then today should see continued selling.

Bullish or Bearish?

Does price look like it wants to move up out of this pattern higher, or does it look like it wants to break down? Rising wedges aren't called bearish for nuttin.

ES count update

ES is sorta tough to get a good read on currently. It appears that we completed a double three (WXY) at the 926.25H. Everything looked good with the impulsive 5 waves down yesterday, which I had labeled as 1. We know that the 908.25L can not be a 1 because todays action took out the 926.25H. This is a rule violation. Wave 2 NEVER retraces more than wave 1.

Where does this leave us? The 908.25L has to be an A down and todays (Globex) upleg would be a B up, for what appears to be an expanded flat. That would mean we are in a C down currently with projections starting at the 61.8% (917.25) and continuing down to the 161.8% (899.25). The wave form will tell us when its done. When the market traces out complex corrections, it can be very frustrating, but it is what it is. It will resolve itself shortly. However it plays out, I suspect my upper channel line (cyan) will keep price in check. Time will tell.

ES

Here is a 17711 volume chart. Notice how we stopped dead nuts at the 423.6% fib projection. This was projected off the bottom (8.25) ABC. We spent the remainder of the day (basically all day) drifting down in the nice channel before bouncing off the 2:1, projected off the top ABC, and 50% retrace of whole upleg.

Crude

Crude update. Nice downside action in the crude market today. I believe that it has completed its B wave up (Daily) and has started C down. The attached chart is a 144T (my trading chart) and shows the beautiful down channel. 68.36 is yesterday's low and there are several fib relationships in that area as well. Expecting a retrace very soon.

Edit: As expected crude has started its retrace in earnest. Has broken out of down channel and is currently backtesting it. Will try a long scalp in here.

Edit: Was long only 1 @ 68.72...flat @ 68.93 +.21

ES

An ES update. I got both my wishes and ES was held at the upper channel line, as well as, stopped at the 61.8% retrace. We had an impulsive move down to complete wave 1 (cyan). It appears that we have some zz's up for 2. If this count is correct we should be starting 3 down sometime today. There are alternatives to what I have shown. We can cross that bridge later, if needed. I will be looking to sell this morning until the structure tells me otherwise.

You will notice that I have changed some of the colors of the labeling. I have gotten into a bad habit of using different colors on different charts of the same degree based upon what looks best for a specific chart background color. This can be confusing for me, so im going to come up with a universal color scheme for the labeling.

SPX big picture

Here is where I'm at big picture. The dark red are really redundent, but I wanted to make sure that for those that didn't know, this is whats known as a "double three" in EWT. 2 sets of 3's (ABC's) that are designated with W, X and Y. You are allowed to have a maximum of 3 sets, however, it is rare for that to happen.

Government intervention and market manipulation? Naw! no way! really? maybe, absolutely! Hell Yes!

Crude

Rocketship thrust up out of this triangle. Was L @ 69.19, took 1st @ 69.37 and 2nd @ 69.54. Left .40 on the the table!

Action thus far looks impulsive to the downside. Notice the huge RSI divergence registered at the highs. It appears that we have completed our B or 2 (red) leg up with an Ending Diagonal to finish 5 of C (white). The 61.8% (926.50) also held the correction up in check.

Cycle Turn Dates

These cycles have shown very nice correlation to major and minor turns in the past. The next major turn is forecast for 7/16. They DO NOT tell you whether they will be highs or lows.

This is a great read. Toggle the upper right hand corner for full screen. Taibbi-Goldman-Sachs

BORING!...thats about all you can say about the stock indexes today. ES had a 4.25 point range for the entire day after the first hour. This is more than likely a 4 of C with 5 yet to come. If price trades inside 918.75 (wave 1 high) then the count will be wrong. 4's are very difficult to trade due to the fact that they are generally complex corrections (means they have a combo of patterns - zz's, flats, triangles). Its best to just avoid them and find a different market to trade.

I have a Bid/Ask Volume indicator in the 2nd window pane (courtesy of my good friend PTemini over at www.mypivots.com ). This indicator captures the volume at the bids and asks. I have it set to 100, which shows me the cumulative amount of all contracts that are 100 (orange) or greater in size throughout the day. Notice the divergence as the day proceeded. This shows that the bigs were distributing into this consolidation.



Well the channel line (cyan) held, so far. I've drawn a new channel line (magenta) for C (white) up. It is only good if 4 is in fact done.

Beans

Here is my current take on beans. It appears that the structure up is complete. My bet would be that this retrace can be sold.

ES

Lets see what happens here at the upper channel line.