Weekend Chart Update #2

Has C finished? Different day, same question. I have the same answer as well, I'm just not sure. This I can tell you - we have either finished 5, thus completing C, or we have finished 3 and are in the process of working on 4. Until prices and structure tell me I'm wrong, which they may be doing, I will continue with my current count of being in 4 of C.

Crude printed its low of 58.32 on Monday and rallied the rest of the week. We hit a high of 63.99 on Friday, coming within a whisper of the 38.2% at 64.07 (whole C wave). We surpassed the 38.2% of the move from wave 2 high, which was at 63.50.

If we break the channel and get through the 50% retrace from wave 2 high (65.08), I will assume that I'm wrong.

Just about everyone seems to think that crude is done with its b corrective move up. I do not fall in that camp. I believe that we finished a beautiful structured zigzag that is 1 degree lower. If I'm correct, then we should see the resumption of the counter-trend move up following this B (white). Target, at minimum, would be the 38.2% at around 89.

If everyone else is right, then we should see a pretty destructive C leg, sooner rather than later. I might add, that we do NOT have an impulse wave 1 from the high.

Look at the nice channel we have been in since the low. We broke out for a little throw-over at the swing highs, but settled back inside. It appears that the structure is complete with a nice fib relationship. Also, notice the RSI divergence, which has given us an additional clue.

What a beauty of an AB=CD off the bottom. I don't trade off a 15m chart (too big), but a person could have trailed a stop under the swing pivot lows and caught basically that whole move.

I will start next week looking to sell CL, expecting a downside structure to play out. As mentioned above, I will also be paying close attention to the channel line and 50% retrace level.

The dollar looks to have completed a little 4 wave triangle. If I'm interpreting the structure right the dollar should resume its downtrend and finish off its 5th.

The 61.8% minimum expected target for 5 is around 74.50. I could be entirely wrong, but I don't think it makes it that far. There is a lot of support in the 76-77 area.

Regardless of where it finishes this (C) leg, I think the dollar is poised to go lots higher. When we finish this 2 or B, we should then have upside for the foreseeable future.

Don't cry to me about the fundamentals and how the dollar deserves to probably go to zero. The structure says up - so I will plan accordingly.

The EURUSD cross appears to validate my short-term dollar bearishness. It is tracing out a very well defined 4 wave triangle. Although it came close, 4 never went into 1 territory, thus keeping this count alive.

AB=CD at about 1.485, which would complete a nice flat. The minimum 5th wave target would be the 61.8% at about 1.49. It looks like when this structure completes its counter-trend rally - it will be lights out. This also jives with my outlook for the dollar.

For the near term though, it looks like this can be bought with a pull back if your aggressive. If conservative, wait for a break over D.

The yellow metal had a decent week. Looks like the fork halted the up move. I am still looking for GC to move lower - that opinion has not changed.

If it makes a move above 949 Then I will get suspicious. If it moves above 992.10 then I will need to change to my alternate count at the bottom of chart.


Bonds fooled me as they made a decent move down last week. It appeared that they had finished A down, which can still be valid.

This could develop into a little flat for (A) to kick-start this B wave. In the end though, there is a big C waiting for its turn.

Weekend Chart Update #1

Where is the big upside gap? Beats the hell out of me. Couple of days ago my data no longer showed it. Hmmmm. I verified with my other data sources and this is correct.

Well, that non-gap had caused me to change my count. I have gone back to what I had originally thought best fit the structure. If this is correct, and I believe it is, beans are getting ready to hit the meat of their decline - wave 3 of 3.

Any print below 957.50 (A high) will confirm that the move from 680.75 has been corrective. AB=CD at 318.50...Gulp! Not sure that level is in the cards (not sure it isn't either), but the 61.8% comes in around 655, which would be considered a minimum level to look for.

Wheat finished off a nice ABC at the end of May and wasted no time in taking back that counter-trend move. If you went short the beginning of June you were screaming YAHTZEE! The joy of being short when your market falls 20 out of 25 days.

I had originally thought the structure was a big abc, but have changed my labels to reflect EWI's position, which we would end up in the same place at the same time, but why argue with the experts.

There is likely additional downside left in this market, however, it appears the majority of the damage has taken place.

Corn, just like Wheat, finished off a counter-trend move at the end of May and has been a shorts best friend since. Notice how narrow and steep the channel has been.

AB=CD at...well it's not going to get there (negative), but it may very well find the 61.8% near 147. We should see a bounce soon when 5 completes, which should complete (3) as well. Although, the easy money has been had, there should be additional downside left.

No question the grains have been the place to be short. I'm embarrassed to say that I have had zero participation in this lotto giveaway. I plan on finding my way into beans when trade opens Monday.

ES

As expected, we spent the majority of the day consolidating yesterday's gain. It appears that we had a triangle for 4 trace out (there are other possibilities). Total range on the day was 19.75 points. Volume came in a smidge better than yesterday, but still above its 20 day moving average.

We completed something up there today. I show us finishing off 3 (white). If correct, we should be in the process of working on 4. I have change some labels and degree's on my chart. The fib relationships were just getting goofy and still are in my opinion (among other things). I'm certainly not 100% satisfied of where we are in this structure, or how it has traced out.

What type of 4 should we be expecting here (or when it comes)? 2 (white) was complex, so based on the guideline of alternation, we should expect a sharp zigzag. This is just a guideline and not a certainty. You will notice that 2 was sharp and 4 was complex.


Here is a nice look at the channels. Also, notice the HUGE negative divergence on RSI. I think everything known to mankind was divergent up there.

The 23.6% comes in at 923. This fits well with 4 of lesser degree. Don't forget we have intraday gaps at 910.50 and 914. Maybe they actually have a decent retrace (yeah right). I think they used up all the retrace on 2...98.7%!


Nothing surprising here. I did, however, forget to reset this at pit open. I think it's about 5-6k higher than what actually occurred.











This is how a H/S is suppose to work folks. Don't know if it reaches its target or not, but the 161.8% sits in a convenient place for that to happen.

Much has been said about how the H/S pattern on the daily wouldn't work because everybody was keyed into it. My personal opinion is that is BS. Pattern's, regardless of what they are, happen everyday in the market. They happened 50 years ago and will happen 50 years from now. Some work - some don't.

What about the triangle today? Why did that work? Was it hidden from everybody except us in the eChat? I don't think so, yet it worked. Trendlines, moving averages, ect. ect. work everyday and everyone is aware of them. The daily H/S DID work. It just didn't reach a level that generally they reach.

The only certainties in the market are that everything is uncertain and that GS controls it for their benefit!

Crude

Crude continues its correction. It appears that it completed an abc at days end to finish off, what I have labeled, (a) of a bigger complex corrective. If correct, then this would be a WXY double three.

I don't get caught up in the count folks with this market. If you scalp (like me), there is huge range that affords plenty of profit potential.

I will say it again, I'm suspicious that 5 of C could be complete. I am maintaining this count until proven otherwise.

P.S. Hope you noticed the 78.6% retrace and 127.2% projection on today's abc - reciprocals again!

Crude

Crude has had a nice ABC that maintained channel integrity. This looks complete to me.

ES Triangle?

Looks like there is a potential triangle tracing out, which is not unexpected. D is just a guess at this point, as I don't think it has finished its leg. This measures 11.75 points.

There are certainly other options that could play out here. We need more information.

ES

This is how the subwaves look to me so far. It appears that the structure may be tracing out either a flat or triangle. One thing is for sure, we have a 3 down and a 3 up. The 23.6% is down around 915, with the 38.2% around 906.

ES

BOOOOOLISH! What else can you say. 5th extension of 3 is what I come up with. There is no other way of looking at this than to come to the conclusion that C ended at 865.25.

Volume was better than yesterday, but far from impressive. We ended with a decent range of 24.25 points. We ran into the 50 week sma and were rejected for the time being.

You will notice that there are lots of fib projections on my chart. I was looking for any clue that this frankenstein, steroid induced after doing a pile of coke, viagra overdosed 5th was over. It appears that we have finished 3 and are working on 4.

If this is correct, we should have a 5th up to end big A (white). Then we get a B (white), followed by a C. It's then lights out.

A lot of things about this move from a TA perspective just don't jive. The only reason that I'm not long via calls. There are also intraday gaps @ 910.50 and 914 that will need to be settled...and they will.

Expect tomorrow to be a bunch of nothing. IF we are in a 4 - play golf.

I'm supposed to be impressed with this level of big money buying?

Crude

Not at all sure about the degree's, but this is a very nice structured ABC corrective. AB=CD at 62.10. The 141.4% sits at 63.47, right where the 38.2% is conveniently.










Folks, you just can't make this stuff up. I showed this relationship last night.

141.4 is the diagonal of a square. 70.7 is the "sacred cut." Pay attention to this relationship.

ES

Looks like an ending diagonal here. Naturally I'm short.

ES

It was a pretty ho-hum trade day, as ES was working off a wave 4 correction. Total range was 11.50 points with volume coming in just slightly less than yesterday.

Then the fireworks started as everybody got juiced up on Intel's bad numbers after the close. We gapped up when we re-opened and ran to 912.75 where there was a ton of different resistance stopping the party in its tracks.

You will notice that we ran into a couple trendlines. The blue one is from the 952.75 H and 928.25 H. Price just happened to nail those TL's at 912.75, the 1 bar 60m price projection - how random!

I am maintaining my preferred count, however, my confidence is waning. We may very well have ended C (white) at the 865.25 L. The retracement is getting pretty deep as the 78.6% sits at 914.75. I'm ok if C is done, however, the cycles seem to suggest that it's just not time for us to start a run higher.


This is a different look at basically the same thing via a 2.5 point range chart. Notice the nice channel this structure has working. Whenever we break the 2-4 line, you will know that this specific leg is finished.

In my opinion, the bulls need to drive this as high and fast as they can to get away from the H/S neckline. Right now that sits at about 891-92. When this leg finishes, there will be a retrace. If they can keep that retrace from breaking the neckline it will make their life a lot easier. No need to embolden the bears by giving them confidence if the neckline gets taken again.

Bigs started accumulating around 2 CST and continued buying until the close. At the time of this writing, they are +10.2k










Here is a beauty of a Bull Butterfly that signaled the low of wave 4.








Pay attention to the 915.50 area should we get that high. If they turn it there it would complete a Bearish Crab pattern.

Crude

Crude continued its correction today. I'm beginning to think I'm right, in that this is indeed a 4 wave. It appears to have finished off a cut and dry expanded flat.

I will be looking for price to move higher from here. Still thinking we find our way up to the 38.2% around 63.50.




Here is some intra-day action on my trading chart (144T). We had a nice little corrective ABC from the swift down move after weekly numbers.

Notice the B wave retracement to the 70.7%. The projection of the A leg, measured from B, finishes exactly at the 141.4%. 70.7 is the reciprocal of 141.4, which I might add, is a very harmonic combination.

There is another example where the retrace was 88.6% and the final destination of price ended at the 112.8% fib projection. Again, a case where reciprocals play out.

This is not an unusual occurrence. This happens very frequently. I am always interested in the precise retracement ratio, so I am aware of what price projection I should be looking for.

The retracement ratio clues you in to whether you have a arithmetic, geometric or harmonic relationship working. That's a topic for another discussion though.

ES

ES started the day off retracing its globex gains before finishing off its B leg at the 61.8%. It then spent the remainder of the day drifting higher with little retrace, in what appears to be a C leg. Very nice range today at 32.25 points. Volume came in a little better than Friday's. I believe we had a 90% upside day. Very bullish day all around - imo.

If my assessment of the structure is correct, then we should be very near to completing WXY to finish B up. Notice that price hit some nice fib resistance at the 897.75 H, not the least of which, was the 50% retracement of the 928.25 H. We should know very soon (tomorrow) if this count is correct. My alternate is that we have completed 1 and 2 and are working on 3.

Just noticed that closing $ticks were +1099. Remember the days (last fall) when that meant 70-100 handles!

They were buying (covering) today. +42K is nice, but not huge by any stretch. Been awhile since they drove it to R3. Job well done GS!

Crude

Crude made marginal new swing lows today at 58.32. I have no clue if my labeling is correct, however, it really doesn't matter much. We know crude is correcting the massive sell-off it has had over the last 10 trading days. Just look at the overlapping waves leading price sideways.

The real question is "how high will it retrace"? I have my eye on the 38.2%, which sits around 63.50. It could go for its 50%, but I think those odds are not very high (assuming this is a 4 wave). Have I told you I love trading this beast!

Also, notice the very nice RSI divergence.

Bradley Model

This chart has the Bradley Model overlayed on the ES daily. Future dates of interest are shown with black vertical lines.

The model forecasts turning points only - not the polarity (high in chart may be a low and vice versa).

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