Weekend Chart Update #2

Crude It was a wild week for crude. It lost 6% on Wednesday, then took it all back Thursday. Friday continued the power move.

I believe that we completed a minute [b] wave Wednesday/Thursday globex. If I have my degree's right, we should have completed minuette (i) and (ii) (a beautiful zigzag) at the 64.96 L. This would mean we are currently tracing (iii).

(iii) = (i) at 70.04. Based on structure thus far, I expect that price to get left behind fairly quickly. The 161.8% sits at 73.18, while the 2:1 comes in at 75.14. These fib projections are basis September. The continuous contract are slightly different.

The daily picture shows that we are near a confluence of resistance. The previous channel line, the current channel line, the 78.6% AB=CD projection, the 70.7% retrace from the high - all sit directly ahead.

The 1 bar daily projection is at 74.62. I'll speculate that we eventually reach that target - maybe sooner than you think.

I managed to get a slug of USO calls Friday morning :) I dumped the majority of them towards the high of the day for +.85. I still have a smallish line and will see how this (iii) wave plays out...if I'm correct in my wave structure assessment.

Dollar Index The dollar was one of the few assets that didn't have a good week. Thursday's bearish harami was followed by a big bearish reversal candle Friday. This was after a fake breakout of the 2-4 line on Wednesday.

5 of intermediate (C) looks to still be tracing. If you drill down to a 15 minute chart, it appears that it is very close to completing a small triangle ((iv) of [v] of 5 ?).

The 10-day Daily Sentiment Index closed at 9.7 on Friday. The March 2008 bottom registered a low of 10.8. Structure says this pig is imminently close to an important bottom, while the sentiment indicators agree.

Dollar strength should have ramifications on other markets.

Gold GC had a nice bullish reversal candle on Friday, which was preceded by Thursday's bullish harami.

Should 964.80 be taken, then we will have to adjust our minute [ii]. AB=CD is at 985.20.

It sure has the look and feel of a triangle - doesn't it? Unfortunately, a triangle can only be in 4th's, B's or X's (p. 41, Elliott Wave Principle).

My preferred count is bearish and my alternate bullish. Hopefully, there is resolution soon as to what structure it is in.

30 YR Bond Bonds enjoyed a good week. As bond prices move higher - yields drop and vice versa. That is exactly what happened this past week.

It appears that minor B completed on Monday. Minor C should see five minute waves up.

AB=CD at 124'20. I suspect that we will see price exceed that projection. If so, the 127.2% comes in at about 127 (nice coincidence) with the 161.8% at 130'19.5.

I'm satisfied that (C) completed at 111'21.5, thus completing primary [A] . The proportionality is not there compared to 2 for this to still be minor 4. However, that is my alternate.

I will be looking for price to trace higher this coming week.