Thursday, July 30, 2009

ES

The market started its thrust out of the three day consolidation (hallelujah!) late yesterday and continued through globex and the early part of the session.

We made the high of the day within the first hour. From there we basically grinded our way down first, then up, before they puked 'em up the last 45 minutes.

Range was 20.50 handles with higher than average volume.

It appears that we have finally finished minor A. If A is indeed done, it measured 128.75 handles. At this point, we have begun impulsing down in B and appear close to finishing (iii) of minute [a]. It should be noted, we have only had a zigzag down at this stage. There is still the possibility that this is wave (iv) with (v) up to complete A.

It's way to early in the structure to determine which of the three forms it will take. As stated previously, it will be either a triangle, flat or zigzag. My preference is a nice power zigzag. A flat, however, would screw the most people. It would give doubt to the shorts of the legitimacy of the downside, while allowing the dippers to add to their longs. A witch those flats can be - especially the expanded ones.

If the up structure completed (coming so close to my 995!), then we will need to start looking at our retracement levels from the 865.25 L. The first up will be the 23.6% at 963.50. The 38.2% comes in at 44.50, while the 50% sits at 29.75.

I suspect the three day grindathon we had for wave [iv] (4th of lesser degree) will not be easily taken. And we still need to break the channel line.

The minimum downside objective for a triangle would be the 38.2%. A zigzag should get to the 50%, while a flat should minimally reach the 70.7% at 903. Don't forget we STILL have intraday gaps that go all the way down to 910.50.

Using KoolsTools Time Cycles, we should see a low based on the daily 4 trading days from today, or next Wednesday. This is not to imply that this B wave should complete by then. Only that Wednesday should contain a daily low - not "the" low.

Notice the red box. That's why I refer to them as "big" money and not "smart" money. We know who was buying the drinks tonight.

One last thing. I'm in the process of standardizing my nomenclature and color schemes for the labeling. The problem I have is that I use three different backgrounds and I have had a hard time with colors that fit for all three.

That should be done by this weekend. I will post something in regards to this.

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