Tuesday, July 28, 2009

ES

A rare negative close for the market today. We had a 15.50 handle range, while volume increased from the two previous sessions.

It appears that we are still in process of tracing out a triangle, although, slightly different than what I had labeled yesterday. Wave C looks to have morphed into a more complex structure(WXY).

This is not at all surprising, as we generally see one of the subwaves more complex than the other's. Triangles are a fight between bull and bears and reflect a balance of forces. That's why they go sideways.

If this assessment of structure is correct, we should see a thrust upward on E's completion. It has a 21.50 handle measurement from high to low. This would target out around 995 (there's that number again!) using the apex. We will have to see where E ends to get an exact target.

There is also the possibility that this is not a triangle at all. One thing is certain, we have traced out a bunch 3's. If price trades below C at 966, then the triangle would be invalidated.

Notice the channel line. This comes from a 1-3 line starting at the end of wave 2. Pretty random how price supported there - ya think?


Not much to glean from this, outside of the fact, the smalls were almost -40k this morning before finishing around -12.5k.

There was a beautiful buy setup off of the confluence of Value Low and S1 during the retest. Hope some of you got a piece of that.

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