Monday, July 27, 2009

ES

Es finished higher on the day for its 10th positive close in the last 11 sessions. Range was 16 handles, while volume contracted for the second day in row.

There are several different scenarios that may be in play here. As mentioned in eChat, we may very well be tracing out a triangle.

This would be a running triangle because B exceeds the high of A. I am not sure D has completed at this point, so I may need to adjust the upper boundary line.

There is also the possibility that this is an Ending Diagonal (ED). We have two sets of 3 wave structures off of the 948.25 L, and appear to be working on the third currently. I show that alternate count at the bottom.

This is a 1.50 point range chart that shows the triangle in better detail.

Aso, notice the dark red channel and how that has acted as resistance. This is the 2-4 line. Once broken, this is exactly what we would expect.








The small lotter's started buying the 969 L and basically continued into the close. The bigs did not start in earnest until we made the failed low at 970.75 (VO was long at 72!).

Sure looks like wedging action to me.

There are also a couple of other possibilities that may unfold over the next day or two, but rest assured, this pig is very close to giving us a sizable retrace of this leg off of the 965.25 L.

I stuck my toes in the water on some puts today. Just a 1/4 position though, as I'm likely early.

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