ES

The equity markets experienced hard downside price action today. Range was an impressive (for the ES) 31.50 handles on another big volume day.

Has the "Great Bear" returned? Price action took out the last remaining level of support (1034.25) that would allow any bullish interpretation.

The preponderance of evidence suggests that we have topped. Is it THE top? That's yet to be determined, but I believe the odds are greater than 50% that we may have entered the next phase of this market.

I have replaced my count with the alternate scenario. This implies structure completed minor C of intermediate (Y) of primary [B] at the 1075.75 H.

Yes, it's far from that perfect idealized Elliott Wave structure, but it is what it is.

I am showing a 120 minute pit session chart because after the 1065.75 H it is a mess trying to get a clean count. Sub-minuette i finishing at the 1053.25 L is just a guess. It's more likely that it actually ended at the 1041.50 L. It's not all that important at this stage.

We should be close to finishing up a sub-micro degree wave structure (not shown).

The daily 1 bar projection sits at 1022. At a minimum, there should be some type of reaction once fulfilled.

The daily 50sma is currently at 1016.25, another level worthy of our attention.

Minuette degree targets include (iii) = 161.8% of (i) at 1002.25, and the 261.8% projection of (i) at 962.50.

Watch the base channel boundary line. This could be a support level.

As discussed in last nights post, I was forced to bail on my calls. I ended up netting out a profit, but chicken feed really. Not to bad when you can be 1000% wrong and still make some beer money :)

Bottom line - I have no choice but to be near-term bearish. There is just no bullish alternative. If your a bulltard, the best you can hope is that this is an intermediate degree (X) wave unfolding.

I suppose it's possible that we somehow finished minor A at the highs. There are better odds of me giving up VO. In other words - don't bet the ranch on it folks :)

It's time to sell this pig!