Tuesday, September 29, 2009

ES

The equity markets ended lower after making their highs in the morning. Range was a smallish 12.50 handles on expanding downside volume.

My view is that we finished a minuette wave (i) of (v) of minute [v] at the 1065.75 H. We are currently tracing wave (ii).

I have ratcheted down my degrees by one, as I think this makes sense, based on the structure.

It appears that (ii) is taking the form of a double zigzag. I would like to see a "deepish" type retracement for (ii), and a double zigzag suggests that we will.

Equality = 1048.50. The 70.7% retracement = 1044.50. Somewhere in that vicinity would be perfect.

Price action off the 1065.75 H appears corrective, as it should. You could make an argument for a leading diagonal, however, I think it counts best as a 3.

If somehow the alternate count were in play, then this would suggest that we were looking at minuette degree (iii) down. I don't believe it would start with a leading diagonal.

Perhaps it is just a a wave of (ii). This suggests that we would have to have at least another 5 wave structure up of sub-minuette degree to finish (ii), but without exceeding the the 1075.75 H.

It's possible, however, it is my alternate count. As stated above, I believe we completed (i).

We are due a KoolsTools cycle low tomorrow, which fits perfectly with structure.

I plan on putting on a long line tomorrow via calls. More than likely they will be October's. Should I be completely wrong, it shouldn't take long before I know, as we would be entering a 3rd wave down.

Stop will be the 1035.75 L, as this is the line in the sand for my interpretation of structure.

Please do your own due diligence before placing any wagers.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update VO, 1036 is my short term line in the sand as well. It looks like a pair of bullish bat wings on the ES (610T) tonight.

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  2. Yep, not perfect, but it's there. 1st target has been reached.

    Entry would have been 1054.25 with a 1053 stop.

    1st target = 1056.75 with 2nd target = 1059.50.

    Hope you caught a piece of it.

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