Weekend Update - ES

ES
Not a good week for the equity markets in general. The ES closed down 34.75 handles off its Wednesday high.

My current interpretation has structure finishing minute [iv] of minor C of intermediate (Y) at the 1036.25 L Friday.

In order for this view to remain valid, price can not enter the territory of [i], which sits at the 1034.25 level. Should that occur, odds favor that minor C completed up at the 1075.75 H, as per the alternate at bottom of chart.

The only remaining bullish way at looking at structure would assume that C was tracing an ending diagonal. This would actually require [iv] to work its way into wave [i] territory. Although a possibility, I don't think it is very realistic.

Diagonals form 3's - not 5's (p. 36-37, Elliott Wave Principle). It is clear to me that minute [i] traced a 5 wave structure.

It appears that we have a little 5 waves up off the 1036.25 L. I have labeled this as a minuette (i) and (ii). 5 minuette waves up will finish minor C, thus completing intermediate (Y).

Price does not have to reach new highs to finish its upside structure. It's very possible that [v] could truncate.

Targets for (iii) are equality with (i) at 1047.75, as well as, the 161.8% projection of (i) at 1053.

This is a weekly look at things. Notice that MACD has a confirmed cross-over. Also notice the big negative divergence of the histogram.

I suspect that RSI will have a reaction at the trend line. I'm still looking for RSI to show a negative divergence before this bear rally completes. The breaking of the channel will let us know that the downtrend has resumed.

Although not shown, we have reached the monthly 20 sma (and ema) - and were rejected. This has setup a big sell pattern, as ADX is also over 30. I don't trade this pattern, but I do pay attention to it.

It should be noted, however, that the daily has setup a buy signal based on the same.

The daily projection down = 1022. We did close under the 161.8% projection, suggesting that we should see the 261.8%.

We had a KoolsTools cycle peak that was scheduled for Tuesday. We did go on to make a higher high, but not on a close basis. The next decent cycle I see is a cycle low setup for Wednesday. This comes from the two peaks up top.

Bottom line - I'm looking for structure to trace out one more impulse. It appears that we have a 5 wave move off of Friday's low. At minimum, we should see another 5 waves up.