Friday, September 25, 2009

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market put in a good week to the upside.

We didn't get any confirmation as to what structure is up to. As stated last week, there is a possibility that primary [5] ended at the 302 L. I also stated that I don't believe this to be the case, however, it can't be ruled out.

Should price turn here and start aggressive impulsive action to the downside, I would be inclined to believe that corn had put in a smaller minor degree 1 and 2 waves. A very bearish development for this market.

Drilling down intraday, price was turned away at the 78.6% retracement of the previous move off the 347.75 H. From my experience, the deeper the retracement, generally the more powerful the 3rd wave tends to be.

Should price take the 347.75 H, which is a beautiful double top, this would obviously negate this view.

It is also possible that primary [4] is still tracing. A triangle can not be ruled out. This view would be negated should price exceed 373 to the upside, or 302 on the downside.

Key levels to watch this coming week are the 347.75 H and 310 L.

A KoolsTools cycle peak is due to come in on Wednesday.

All prices basis continuous contract.

SOYBEANS
After a nice day down Monday, the bean market was relatively quite the remainder of the week.

Support was once again found at the upper boundary of the corrective base channel.

I have gone ahead and labeled intermediate (A) at the 892 L. It's unclear, but (B) does not look complete to me. I believe it needs additional work.

Once complete, (C) down should follow in a 5 wave move. Assuming that (B) has seen its price high, then (C) = (A) at 829.75. As discussed the last couple of weeks, there is a lot of confluence in the 860 area.

Although not shown on the chart, minor C of (B) = A at 987.75.

Wednesday is scheduled to be a KoolsTools cycle peak day.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market's whole week was blown up on Friday, losing almost 5%.

Friday's price action broke through the 450 L, though it closed a smidge above it. This suggests that minor 4 has completed.

If this is the case, the minimum objective for 5 is 439, where 5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3. Equality comes in at 414.25.

Intermediate (3) = (1) 417.50.

Key resistance now becomes the 4th wave price extreme at 481.50.

I see no meaningful cycles for the upcoming week ahead.

It doesn't appear as though there is any relief from the beating wheat is taking just yet. This market is down close to 40% from the June highs, and 70% from the 08 highs.

All prices basis continuous contract.

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