Wednesday, September 23, 2009

ES

The equity markets made new bear rally highs before giving back 5 days worth of price action in the last hour of trade.

Volume shot higher, while total range was 20.25 handles. Daily candles were ugly. SPX put in a "key reversal" day.

Well folks, we finished something at the 1075.75 H. The question is what? Once again we look at a 15m pit session chart of the December contract. I show several different scenarios, and each of them have their own specific issues.

I show minute [iii] finishing at today's 1075.75 H. There is a chance that we are still tracing minuette (iv), however, I give that a low probability. It would be so out of proportion to (ii) that it wouldn't make sense.

I'm also not sure how to account for the structure from the 1051.50 L. Price action off the highs definitely suggest an ending diagonal, however, 3 would be the shortest wave - invalidating the pattern. It doesn't count well as a 5 either.

This leads me to believe that perhaps minute [iii] completed at the 1071.50 H and we are still tracing minute [iv], as shown at the bottom of chart. Replace the (iv) label with a (w) and the (v) with a (x), this puts us in (y) down currently of a double three. [iv] would make much more sense compared to [ii].

The concern I have with this interpretation, price action was undeniably strong and impulsive to the downside. Not real characteristic of 4 wave action. This may suggest that something of more importance took place at our highs.

There is the chance that minor C completed today. I don't believe this to be the case, but it can not be ruled out.

At this point, I have to assume that we are still tracing minute [iv]. This means that we can not violate the 1034.25 H for [i] (I have that marked wrong on the chart - sorry).

I have the retracement levels on the chart. Also the yellow box is the 4th of lessor.

It appears that our KoolsTools cycle peak came in a day late.

Bottom line - Regardless of the count, we should see additional follow-through to the downside.

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