Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market was the laggard of the grains this week.

In the Tuesday update, I postulated that I thought this market had finished wave (4) and (5) was underway. I will stick with that assessment, however, my confidence is on the low side.

Although it sniffed the 10/23 H, price never made a serious challenge to overtake it. It was was weak attempt, in my opinion.

Being a 4th wave, it's possible that it needs additional work. If this is the case, it may be in the process of tracing something complex. A flat, triangle, or combination may very well be in cards.

I don't believe we had a 5th wave failure, though I guess it is possible.

Should price trade through the 365.25 L, then that will seal the deal on a wave (5) being in force.

The broken 200 sma is directly underneath for support, as well as the channel boundary.

We also have an established RSI uptrend that may very well act as support.

More than likely, I will need to up the degrees by one notch. I am going to hold off on this another week.

Bottom line - I will maintain my near-term bullish bias for the time being.

Prices basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
A breakout week for beans. Price traded through the 1029.50 H, and more importantly, the 1041.50 H.

This more than likely signals that primary [C] of a double zigzag of cycle c has commenced.

There is still an outside chance that we are still tracing primary [B], though I believe those odds are low.

Upside targets are where (3) = (1) at 1100.50, and (3) = 161.8% of (1) at 1192.75. [C] = [A] at 1174.

Drilling down intraday, you see that price is having a struggle getting past the 1050 level. This happens to be the 127.2% expansion of (2), which does get my attention, but my guess is it will be short lived as resistance.

Bottom line - It was sort of a messy start to this leg, but things appear to be progressing in impulsive fashion. I am near-term bullish this market until proven otherwise.

Price basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
Big breakout week in the wheat market.

Price confidently traded through the primary [1] high, suggesting that primary wave [3] was underway, and more specific, a "third of third."

The alternative is that [2] is still tracing and this is nothing more than a (C) leg on a coke binge.

I believe this little pullback is nothing more than a smaller degree 4 wave, possible of minor degree, though it may very well be intermediate.

Since we have decisively broken out of the down channel, we should expect it to become support if price were to trade that low.

Notice how price has supported on the 200 sma after breaking through.

Upside targets include [3] = [1] at 623.25, and [3] = 161.8% of [1] at 706.75.

Bottom line - I am near-term very bullish this market. Any trade through the intermediate (1) H of 528.25 would quickly change this view.

Prices basis December contract.