Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Crude, Corn, Wheat, Gold

Crude basically played out as expected today.

We finished tracing a (4)th wave and put in a somewhat sloppy (5)th, though the smaller degree 3rd was nice.

I'm still not real sure about this structure. This is looking goofy to me.

I still think there is a good shot this turns out being a corrective. I will let structure dictate that.

As it stands now, I will assume that [3] completed at the 79.85 H. This means a [4] wave tomorrow. Should price retrace down to the 78 level, I think that would signal that the 79.85 H actually finished [5].

Globex has been unusually active tonight - not sure why.

I wanted to update the price action in the grain markets.

Wheat is signaling that it's game on. I believe this market is in a "third of a third" currently - where the money is made.

It appears that there is a lot left in the tank.

I have notched up my degree's by one from the weekend update.


The corn market has had impulsive price action as well.

Although this market counts a little different than wheat, I believe it is telling us that (4) is finished.

I have not changed the degree's as of yet, but it appears that they will need to go up a notch as well.

I will give a more detailed update on both these markets this weekend.


I also wanted to bring your attention to the gold market.

This looks like a parabolic rise to me. If this is the case, It could get crazy in this market.

You can never be certain where the damn things end, as the waves just keep subdividing. It's best to wait for price to break the arc before taking a stab at a short line.

Generally speaking, price usually makes a B-line back down to the 61.8% retracement level, where a meaningful bounce takes place.

I put the fib levels on the chart, however, this assumes that price is finished on the upside. This is probably not the case.

The pattern itself calls for 100% retracement when complete. We'll see.

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