Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market broke through prior 4th wave resistance with impulsive price action.

As per my update earlier in the week, it appears that a primary degree structure completed at the 302 L. This suggests that cycle wave c has finished, and thus supercycle (a) .

My interpretation has structure in minor wave 4 of intermediate (3) of primary [A] of cycle a of supercycle (b). A mouthful for sure. If correct, this suggests that a tradable bottom is in place for this market.

My alternate view is that the 302 L only finished primary [1] of c down. This would be a very bearish count for the corn market, should it be correct.

Since (a) down took the form of an abc , or a 3 wave structure, this leaves open the possibility of (b) being a flat, triangle, or zigzag.

Price ran into some important levels this week that acted as resistance. Notice that it also ran into the channel. It is no surprise that price was unsuccessful in its bid to move higher.

The channel will be one of the signals I need to fully back my current assessment, as well as a completed impulse.

Bottom line - The evidence is strongly suggesting that an important development has taken place at the 302 L. I will assume this to be the case, until proven otherwise.

Near-term should see upside price action after completion of this minor 4 wave. The 200 sma is directly overhead, chances are good that it will act as resistance.

All prices basis December contract.


SOYBEANS
The bean market spent the majority of the week consolidating/retracing.

Nothing has changed in my assessment of this market. Primary [C] of cycle b of supercycle (a) is where I show current structure. I still think that a triangle could actually be playing out.

Perhaps this is a big b wave combination. The 974.25 H, where I have [C], could be [W]. The 746.25 L could be the (A) leg of an [X] wave triangle, with the 1040 H as (B).

I have just never been satisfied with the 5 wave structure that completes [A] . Then trying to marry the front month and combined contracts with the continuous makes me think something other than a double zigzag is tracing.

Of course they could make it easy on me and just blow out the 1040 H, thereby, confirming my preferred count.

Targets remain the same, [C] = [A] at 1172.50. [C] = 61.8% of [A] at 1060.25, our minimum upside objective.

I don't see any decent cycle days for the upcoming week

Bottom line - I still anticipate higher price. It appears that we finished a minor degree 3 wave on Tuesday and look to be tracing 4. After completion, price should begin working higher.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market broke above 4th wave of lessor degree resistance in impulsive fashion.

I stated last week that I may be behind in the count. It appears that is indeed the case. The necessary structure is in place to say that 5 waves off the 725.25 H have completed at the 439.25 L.

My current interpretation has structure completing primary [5] of cycle V of supercycle (a) . Should this view be correct, a tradable bottom is in place.

With a 5 wave move from the early 2008 H, we can expect (b) to take the form of a zigzag. B wave zigzags generally retrace between 38.2% and 78.6% of the prior move. This is shown with the cyan tinted box.

RSI has really been warning that something was up. The positive divergence, which also shows up well on the weekly, was too great to ignore. Although I have discussed it for several weeks, I really dropped the ball on this one.

Drilling down intraday shows how I'm looking at this leg higher.

It is possible that the 529 H finished an impulse, however, I believe it counts best with a minor wave 3 completion up there.

483 becomes important with this view. This is the price extreme of 1, which should not be traded through.

It appears that the minute [c] leg (not shown) of this wave 4 corrective needs one more leg down to complete.

Bottom line - I do believe that something important has taken place in this market. Before I can get 100% behind it, I need to see an initial impulse wave. That is 3 sets of 5 waves.

Based on my count (which could be wrong) I see just 2 sets so far. I also need to see a 2-4 channel break, thereby, confirming a new primary trend.

It's always nice to see markets move into their next phase.

All prices basis December contract.

Edit: We have a new moon on Sunday the 18th. The last moon on the 4th, set the grains off. Lets see what happens.