Thursday, October 15, 2009

Gold

Checking in on the gold 60 minute continuous contract.

This market made news highs on Monday and Tuesday, reaching 1072, before starting to correct. This is very close to the 1076.80 triangle target.

It's unclear exactly where this minuette degree (iii) wave finished. I have the 1072 H shown on the chart, however, it may very well have ended at the 1062.50 H. This is the alternate count at the bottom.

This would entail an expanded flat for (iv). The leg I have labeled as sub-minuette v is a mess. It counts much better as a corrective.

I wouldn't be surprised if (iv) turns into something more complex, as it has that look like it needs additional time and/or price.

We have had huge negative RSI readings with each successive peak since the 1045 area.

The 200 sma supported this corrective thus far. If price gets through the 20 sma, I would expect the 50 sma to repel price back to the 20 sma, before it can make another attack on the 50 sma. Basic major moving average stuff.

If this interpretation is correct, then we should have an additional leg higher to complete minute [v], and thus minor C.

As I have stated in previous posts, I may be ahead in the count. It's possible that we would only complete minute [iii]. That is one of my alternate views, with another being that this witch is going lots higher.

1011 is the price extreme of (i). Should this level be traded through, then obviously something is wrong.

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