Thursday, October 8, 2009

Crude

Huge day in the crude pits today as expected. Range was $3.38 on big volume.

We had a nice easy wave structure to count today. Today was all about getting long and staying long.

It appears that we are tracing a micro wave [4] of [5] of sub-minuette iii. If this is correct, we should see an additional push higher to complete this leg.

It's unclear if [4] has completed, but it is very close. Notice that we have retraced back to the lessor of 4th degree. I would expect this corrective to remain fairly shallow.

Price traced a beautiful little triangle for sub-micro (4). A nice "marker" for where we were in the structure. Notice how the base channel supported price. Should have been an easy trade setup for those of you that trade this market.

I was fortunate enough to get long 71.35 on the e leg. Needless to say, VO got fat today :)

I do have some reservations of where I have structure pegged.

For starters, i seems awful big compared to the rest of the structure. Also, iii is one leg away from completing. Unless [5] really gets it's dancing shoes on, then there isn't going to be a lot of room for iv to trace without moving into i territory.

It is possible that (a) actually finished at the 71.97 H. This poses its own problems. (c) needs to finish below the 75.89 H in order for the triangle to be valid.

I will maintain my current count until structure dictates otherwise.

Bottom line - I expect price to follow up this corrective with another leg higher. Should price trade through the 70.58 level, then something else is going on.

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