Weekend Update #2

30 YR BONDS
The bond complex had hard downside price action on Friday, erasing all of the gains from early in the week.

Price broke and closed over critical resistance on Wednesday. This eliminates the possibility of any triangle, at least based on the continuous contract.

Notice that price was repelled at the 78.6% projection of minor A, as well as the 38.2% retracement of the entire move off the 138'1/32 H.

One of the problems I have with this witch, is I do not know what the long-term count is. Based on the data I have (only 10 years), I suspect that the intermediate degree correction (EWI has this degree labeling) we completed at the 110'14/32 L was a primary [A] wave. This of course is a guess.

Anybody out there that has a LT count - please chime in.

Here is the combined contract. Notice that the triangle is still in play.

Also, price has not taken out the (A) L at 123'10. This leaves the possibility that the alternate count may be in play.

Bottom line - I'm not sure what's going on in this market. Near-term it appears that price put in a reversal late last week and should see some downside pressure.

CRUDE
The crude market sold hard the first part of the week before stabilizing.

Price took out the minuette (x) wave low on the near month (October) calling into question my preferred double zigzag count for minute [b].

The problem is that both the combined and continuous contract failed to follow - so far.

As mentioned previously, I DO NOT believe structure finished in an ending diagonal. An ending expanding diagonal? Nope.

I have to admit though, price certainly "looks" like it wants lower on the daily. The 1 bar projection (KoolsTools) says it wants 64.88 (basis continuous contract).

From a cycle standpoint, the low at minute [a] and minuette (b) gave the low at minuette (x). The (b) and (x) wave lows ended Friday. Will this be another low?

If your bullish this market, you better hope so. We have completed two sets of 5's down. We get another one and that equals an impulse. Telling us that, at minimum, we see another 5 waves of minuette degree.

Drilling down on our chart, I can make a case for price reversing here. We do have some channel support and RSI is certainly diverging. If that is the case, it needs to start higher right now.

First objective would be to break the channel mid-line and take out the 68.78 H in impulsive fashion. The 69.40 H would be next (basis October contract).

DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar chopped around for the week, ending basically where it started.

It continues to support on the lower boundary line. I still have a bullish interpretation on the chart of completing intermediate (C) at the 77.52 L.

For how long is the question? Probably not much longer, as I suspect price breaks lower.

Bottom line - I will be pleasantly surprised if the dollar gathers itself here and pushes higher. My guess is that (C) has not finished. Lets see what next week brings.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
As posted Thursday, it appears that the gold market has a completed triangle and in the process of thrusting higher.

It broke free of several channels and closed above some pivots. It appears to be in the early stages of this advance, which I believe to be a minor C wave of intermediate (B).

If this is correct, then we should see new all-time highs.

The triangle target is 1076.80. C = A at 1248.40, while C = 61.8% of A at 1127.60. The first objective will be to take out the 1015 level.

I would have liked an opportunity to get long at a channel backtest, but it does not appear that will happen. I will look for an entry this coming week.

With so many of the markets showing uncertainty to structure and direction, its nice to have one that appears to have a defined tradable structure.

All prices basis December contract.