ES

Another pretty slow action day in the equity markets. Range was 13 handles on extremely light volume.

It appears that minuette wave (iv) is still in process. We clearly had a 5-3-5 structure off the 991 L. I have labeled this as a sub-minuette w wave.

Price action off the 1004.25 H (nailed by Koolio) was choppy and just didn't feel or look like a 5. I believe it is an x wave. This means that (iv) will be a combination ( two separate correctives).

It's unclear if the second sub-minuette degree abc is complete. My guess is that it has more to go, but it's close. Notice that we do not have that classic RSI divergence as of yet.

y = w at 1004.50. y = 161.8% of w at 1012.75. I have the retracement levels (black) on the chart.

There is the chance that the leg down to the 991.25 L was indeed a 5. If so, this could complete (v), thus finishing minute [i]. I don't think this is the case, but be aware of that possibility.

Once we finish this y leg, it will gives us two sets of small 5's. If we go on and trace a third 5, that will increase the odds that [i] completed. This might fit in with the KoolsTools timing cycles, which called for a low based on the 8/25 and 8/28 daily's.

Regardless of the retrace, I believe structure suggests that lower prices are ahead of us. It doesn't necessarily mean that the bear rally is exhausted, though it certainly could be.

As previously stated, I need to see the channel from the March lows taken out before I can join that camp.

I will patiently await a setup that allows me to put on a short line via puts. I'm hoping this pig has enough in it to get up to the 1012-1014ish area at minimum. I would like to see the base channel hold the retrace if possible.

Line in the sand for a beashish case would be the 1027.75 H imo.