Weekend Chart Update

Here is a weekly look at the SPX. There are a few things that I want to point out. First, notice that price exceeded the 161.8% 2 bar price projection (KoolsTools). This generally signals that price will complete its projection to the 261.8% level @ 819, although, never a certainty. Coincidentally or not, this lines up very well with the H/S measured move. This projection is good until it is either reached or negated by price exceeding the high.

Secondly, we have time cycle lows (KoolsTools) that are not due for 2 more weeks (denoted by blue 1 and 6). This does not mean that price has to go down. It is saying that when the cycle comes due there should be an upward bias to price that follows. This can happen from price higher or lower than where it is currently. There is additional time cycle relationships with fibonacci as well.

Lastly, notice the big inverse H/S pattern that could potentially setup with lower prices. If my big picture scenario is correct - this would be perfect. Scare the bejeezers out of the bulls, crush retail (again!), and get a bunch of shorts to pile in for the fuel to send us on our last zigzag higher. May just be wishful thinking.

Here is my current count. It's my belief that we are in the process of tracing out an X wave (dark red). At completion, we would have one more ABC structure up. The alternative is that we have completed this bear rally and have started back down.

Take a look at RSI. This is looking just like it should in an intermediate topping process. Another reason I favor the downside in the next few weeks.


It appears that we have completed a W and X and are in the process of working on a Y. Correctives in general can be difficult to discern. It "looks" right to me though.

I am hoping for a better retrace of the 928.25 H to complete B (white). A minimum satisfactory level would be the 38.2%, which comes in at 889.25. AB=CD at 888, while the 127.2% sits at 893.25 with the 161.8% at 900.

Crude continued getting pounded this past week. This witch had lost over $15 at its lows. I hope someone out there took advantage of this easy layup.

It printed a 58.72 low, which is very close to its 2:1 fib projection of A and right in the middle of its 4th of lesser degree (and my profit target box). Has C completed? Based on my count, the answer is no. However, my count might very well be wrong. One of my big concerns is that the fib relationship is getting extremely stretched for a flat. Having completed 5 is my alternate.


Here is my count on the subwaves of C. It appears to me that 3 actually ended at the 59.25 L. This would mean that price is tracing out an expanded flat for 4. My best guess is that this 4 will be complex and probably trace some ugly combination. This of course assumes we are indeed in a 4.

For those of you traders that are unfamiliar with this market, I would encourage you to take a serious look at it. It is a money making market and a scalpers paradise!


The yellow metal just does not look bullish to me here. This is Prechter and gangs view as well. I do have an alternate at the bottom, which would be invalidated with price taking the 867 level.






The 30yr has started its bounce in earnest, as expected. I would expect this market to continue working higher over the near-term.






The dollar's pattern sure looks and acts like its in a 4. Maybe it has finished its structure down, but does this look like a 1 and 2? Not to me either.





The magical fruit. Well, beans caused me to change my count with that big gap. I'm now wondering if I had it right the first time. I am leaving as is for the time being. Very nice volatility for those that trade this market.



Purely speculative count on wheat, as I'm unsure of the bigger picture. But, it sure looks like some type of racer X wave.