Tuesday, July 7, 2009

ES


Total range on the day was 23 points, slightly higher than our recent average, while volume expanded from yesterday.

It appears that B up was completed in globex and we have started C down. We should finish off 1 down either in globex or early in the session tomorrow. The 1:1 fib projection comes in at 852. If this indeed is a bonafide C leg of a zigzag, I would expect price to exceed the 1:1.

Is this a C leg down? Well, I have some doubts, however, based on the information we currently have, we have to assume it is. One issue I have is that B is very undersized for its degree. And obviously we didn't get much of a retrace - less than 38.2%. One valid possibility, is that B up is an A leg of an expanded flat and this is not a C leg but a B instead. We will have to let the structure determine what it is.

Here is a snap shot of my volume chart showing "bigs" (>100) and "smalls" (<100). Notice the smalls were selling from the gitgo, however, the bigs didn't cut loose until around 12:30 pm CST. In fact, they had accumulated about 20k contracts at their high point before finishing around -30k. Looks like they both covered some into the close.

Edit: Failed to mention that tonight is a full moon. You are suppose to sell rally's and buy sell-offs into moons. You can learn more about that here.

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