Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
No surprise in corn land this past week, as prices retraced its latest up leg.

My interpretation has this structure currently tracing intermediate (4) of primary [A].

I have to say that I'm a little bit nervous about how this (4) wave is progressing. We have basically retraced the 50% level, which is about the max I like to see for 4th waves.

The problem is that this appears to be a zigzag, and doesn't look at all complete. The price extreme of (1) is 347.60. This doesn't give us much room for error.

Another issue is the lack of alternation with (2). (2) was a deep zigzag, suggesting that (4) would be a shallow complex pattern. This is just a guideline, but I'm bothered by it.

Could it be that this is still part of primary [4], or even worse, the alternate is in play? I think not on both accounts, however, we have to keep an open mind.

It does have a H/S top look to it.

There could be a KoolsTools cycle low on Thursday.

Bottom line - I will maintain my bullish stance on this market unless price trades through the 347.60 price.

Prices basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
The bean market gave us our expected wave (2) retracement this past week.

Nothing has changed in my view of this market. Intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave. My alternate view is that we may be tracing a triangle for primary [B].

I would really like to see price trade through the 1041.50 level to take the triangle off the table.

I am also hoping that we can maintain channel integrity on this retracement. Notice that we have the base channel in the same area for added support.

I continue to watch the divergent RSI action, as noted in last week's update.

Key levels for the upcoming week are the 1041.50 H and the lower boundary of the channel. The 880.25 L is a critical level that should not be breached to maintain the current interpretation.

Pay attention to Thursday, as it's slated for a KoolsTools cycle low.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market spent the week retracing its leg up off the October 5 low, which was expected.

I interpret structure to be in the beginning stages of minor C of intermediate (2) of primary [A]. It is possible that price is still tracing minor B, with C to follow.

So far everything seems normal about this retracement process. It appears as though we should have a nice deep correction, which is preferable in my opinion.

My experience is that 3 waves are generally more powerful coming out of a deeper retracement, though far from a hard and fast rule.

The retracement levels are on the chart. Also notice the 50 sma sitting around 482. Generally, when you fail a major moving average, as happened at the 200 sma, you find support at the next major moving average.

It would be nice to get a B wave bounce, then have C complete around this important average. Just a thought.

We are also at the RSI uptrend line from the lows, and conveniently at the 50% level.

Bottom line - It appears that we should have additional work left on this (2) wave. If I'm assessing structure correctly, then we should see hard upside price action once complete.

Prices basis December contract.

The grain markets have really been tuned in to the moons, as of late. We have another moon on Monday. I'm anxious to see what reaction, if any, takes place.

I have a moon calendar on the upper left hand side of the homepage for those of you that follow moons.