Weekend Update #2

30 YR BONDS
The downside pressure lasted all of two days before reversing and tracing what appears to be an impulse.

The key is that price took out the 121'11/32 H, though not on a close.

I have no idea what structure wants. There are minor degree labels on the chart along with a channel. Unfortunately, that's the best I can do until structure shows its hand.

If you put a gun to my head...I say price acts like it's not done going up. Just remember, I have been wrong on this market the last 137 times.

All prices basis continuous contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
Not unexpectedly, the dollar broke lower this past week.

Price action breached the 77.52 L, thereby confirming that intermediate (C) has unfinished business left.

76.325 becomes the next important level to watch. It appears that this minor 5th wave may be taking the form of an ending diagonal.

If so, wave [iii] needs to be shorter than wave [i]. In contracting ending diagonals, which this appears to be, wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1, and wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3 (p. 88, Elliott Wave Principle).

76.325 = wave [i] equality.

A nice marker to look for will be wave [iv], as it needs to complete in the price territory of [i] (p. 88, Elliott Wave Principle).

This is a look at the weekly chart.

I'm speculating that the 73.667 L completed a cycle degree a wave. It very well could be a c wave or something entirely different.

Regardless, this structure suggests that the dollar should see higher price once primary [B] has finished.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The gold market continued higher this past week.

The beginning of this thrust out of the apparent triangle is sort of a mess to count, or more specifically, finding wave 1.

I show minuette degree labels, which I believe to be correct, but can not be certain of at this stage. Regardless of the degree, it does appear that we are near completion of 5 small waves up.

We nosed up to resistance around 1015 before backing off a bit. The 1028 and 1060 pivot highs are other levels that should be watched.

As stated last week, I believe the triangle was minor B of an intermediate (B) and we are in C up. The triangle target measures to 1076.80.

C = A at 1247.30, while C = 61.8% of A at 1126.60 (slightly different numbers that what I had previously posted).

From a cycle standpoint, Friday was a cycle low day (KoolsTools). This comes from the 2/20 and 6/3 dates. Price moving up into a low date is very bullish (and vice versa).

Perhaps we have a H-H-H cycle, much like crude with its L-L-L-L cycle. The next good peak day isn't for another week.

I'm currently long October 96 GLD calls.

All prices basis December contract.