Weekend Update ES

ES
It appears that we are well into our minor C leg, although, it's still possible that this could be part of a complex structure for B. I'm satisfied that minor B completed at the 976.75 L.

I have minute [i] finishing at the 1003.75 H (27 handles), which was followed by an expanding flat for [ii]. If this is correct, then the flat would be a "running flat" (p. 48-49, figure 1-39 Elliott Wave Principle). That is simply an expanded flat where price doesn't make it back to the bottom of A.

That is a very rare pattern, so I'm wondering if it is indeed correct. Perhaps not, but I don't know how you can get a 5 out of the move off the 994.25 L.

It appears that we are close to finishing another 5 wave impulse, if not already completed. I have this as a sub-minuette degree, which would complete a minuette (i).

5 minuette degree waves should complete [iii]. We will then have a corrective [iv], which is followed by the [v]th. Voila! minor C will be complete. Then things get interesting.

My suggestion is not to get caught up in the smaller degree subdivision of waves. If your new to EWT, or want to quit pulling your hair out, just look for the bigger degree structures.

Targets for the upside? C = A at 1126.25. C = 61.8% of A at 1068.75, which would be the minimum expected target, though it can certainly fall short.

The 50% retracement from the 07 high sits at 1126.75 (nice confluence with the 1:1), while the 61.8% is at 1237.

The monthly 20 sma is around 1078. We have not seen the average since early 08. I suspect it will provide resistance, if only temporarily.

Don't forget the 2 bar daily projection (KoolsTools) at 1036.50. This is off the 975.50 low. I also have a couple of numbers around 1038.

There is also a very important geometric line that sits directly above in what looks to be the low to mid 1040's. This is the 2.236, or the hypotenuse of a triangle for you geometric freaks.

I have the retracement fibs on the chart if (i) of [iii] has completed. Again, I would not expect a very deep (ii), but you never know.

Friday was supposed to be a cycle peak day (KoolsTools) from the 8/12 and 8/17 lows. RSI is also showing very good negative divergence up here. There are several things pointing to a retracement here. Keep that in mind.

Here is Friday's price action. For such a big move, almost 21 handles, the 100 lotter's finished basically level.

Seems kinda strange to me.

I realize that about 1/2 that move occurred in globex, but you would think there would be greater accumulation on their part.

Over the last couple hours they did have a net accumulation, while the smallies clearly were unloading.

I have received numerous enquiries about this indicator. This is the intellectual property of my friend, buddy, pal PT Emini over at MyPivots.com. He allows me to use it under the condition that I don't give it away. I respect and honor that agreement.

Here is the daily look at cash.

If there were no labels on this minor A leg, and you were trying to find wave [iv]...where would you place it? Yeah, me too.

I'm not even going to open that can of worms (yet).

Bottom line - looking for a pull back very soon. It doesn't have to retrace in points, it can do it with time. After which, I expect higher price.