Weekend Update #1

SOYBEANS
This is the bigger picture view that I'm currently working from. Basis weekly composite.

Beans completed a large degree wave [III] (white) in early July 2008. A cycle a wave completed in December 2008. We are in the process of finishing cycle b.

When complete, cycle c down should ensue. That will in turn finish a supercycle degree (a).

This long-term count is taken from EWI.

After a hard down Monday, beans found support at the 61.8% retrace of 3 and rebounded nicely.

As mentioned last week, price action looks impulsive from the 1113.25 H. This bounce, so far, has taken on a corrective look. Both of these argue that minor 5 finished up at 1113.25.

We need to see price action confirm this view by decisively breaking the channel. Until this happens, I will assume that 5 is unfinished.

Should beans still need to trace out a minor 5 leg, the minimum objective would be the 61.8% projection of 1 - 3 at around 1121. Basis daily continuous contract.

WHEAT
This is the bigger picture view I'm working from. Basis weekly composite.

The wheat market completed a large degree [III] (white) wave in February 2008. It appears that the first 4 cycle waves are complete.

Wheat is in the process of tracing out a cycle V wave. This is turn will complete a supercycle (a) wave.

This long-term count is taken from EWI.

The wheat market continued selling down this past week.

Notice that price has been unable to get above the mid-line of the channel. Price action looks very similar to the June [3] leg.

My initial minimum downside target still remains at 437.50, the 61.8% of [1] - [3].

Notice the new alternate count at the bottom. When studying the weekly, it clearly looks like a 1 and 2 wave have completed and price has entered a 3rd. This would bode even worse for an already beaten up market.

It's just an alternate currently. One reason I'm hesitant about embracing that view, has to do with the steepness of the decline between this leg and the previous, which I have as primary [3].

Notice how the downside momentum (based on price action) is not as strong in this current leg. The angle of descent is not near as sharp - at least at this point.

This leads me to believe that maybe this is a [5]th. It is something I will keep an eye on.

For now, the trend is still down and any upside price action should continue to be nothing more than a counter trend move.

CORN
Here is the bigger picture view I'm working from. Basis weekly composite.

Like the other grain markets, corn completed a large degree [III] (white) wave in mid 2008. A cycle a wave finished in December 2008. It appears that cycle b has completed and we are in the process of tracing out a c leg.

This will complete a supercycle (a) wave.

This long-term count is taken from EWI.

It appeared that price was going to take out the 7/22 low at 304 on Monday, however, it was spared for the time being.

I have changed my labels to reflect that intermediate (1) completed at the 304.25 L. If you drill down intraday, I think that structure argues this.

Friday saw price get rejected at the 38.2% retracement of (1). Friday also put in a bearish candle. It's unclear whether this retrace has finished or not.

I would not be surprised to see additional upside pressure for a few more days. There is also the possibility that [4] could still need more work. This would call for a triangle, or some type of complex structure.

Based on how the structure looks, my guess is that [4] is completed.

There is also the outside chance that the 5 wave leg down to 304.25 completed primary [5] (truncated), thus completing cycle c and supercycle (a). I don't believe the odds favor that, although, it can't be ruled out.

Once price takes the 304 L, I expect price to achieve the 270 level. This is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3]. (3) = (1) at 267.75.