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ES had a range of 15.50 handles today and volume fell considerably. Most time-frames are showing negative divergence. It is very hard to discern the count currently. My best guess is that we have finished 3 (white) and are in the process of working on a 4, however, that's not a certainty. We had a clear ABC down from the 940.75 H. From there it gets very messy.
Perhaps we are tracing out some sadistic B wave of an expanding flat. If that is the case, we would still have a C leg down. Who knows at this point.
Here is what I do know:
1.) This market is very overbought currently and in need of a breather.
2.) Notice how price is wedging. That is a clue that a pullback is imminent.
3.) We have reached a zone of resistance and the 1 bar daily projection of 950 could be considered met. It also appears that we may have had an ending diagonal at today's high (yes it counts in 3's).
Bottom line is that we have a pullback starting very soon. This should take care of 4 and set the stage for a 5th to complete a bigger A.
Lastly, don't forget we have a solar eclipse due tomorrow!
I had a lot of trouble this evening discerning what the heck is going on too. My best assumption at this point is a lot of the signs point to a top and so I'm sticking with my original 4 and 5 counts. I took some koolblue price projections, and assuming I did it right, I get several projections in the low 50's.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to come out and say (because i gotta pick one side) that we are gonna hit the low 50s sometime and then have an ABC correction and then maybe this is it for the week long rally.
My reasons are the ED at the end, the lack of volume, which suggests lack of confidence in the higher prices, my original wave count, and several of koolblue's price projections that I did.
Time will tell.
I'm not sure I know what your original 4 and 5's are. Everything is telling us that this specific structure is topping. If we have only finished 3 up, then there will be a 5th that follows.
ReplyDeleteOne of the reasons that the structure's have been difficult to grasp is because this whole move from the lows has been counter-trend. We have been fighting the bigger trend, which is down. That's why there is a lot of diagonals and overlapping waves.
my original 4 was the contracting triangle we saw starting on the 16th and ending on the weekend.
ReplyDeleteoriginal impuslve 5 i considered to be everything after that b4 a major drop, which to me is the correction...the thing we are in now.