Crude

Very nice reversal for crude off the morning lows. Volume was better than yesterday, but nothing to write home about. Range was $3.12.

There are several ways to label the structure down to the 69.83 L. More than likely it was a flat-x-zigzag, but it makes no difference. The important point is that I believe that minuette (b) has completed.

We are impulsing up, which is exactly what should be happening. My interpretation is that we are tracing a double zigzag for minute [b] wave. This should be the last (c) leg that will finish [b].

If this assessment is correct, we will see higher price, and possibly yearly highs. AB=CD at 77.85. Should we reach that level, we would attain new recovery rally highs.

Notice the nice hit of the 261.8% projection. We also sniffed the lower boundary of the daily channel.

RSI had a monster positive divergence at the 69.83 L.

It appears that we have finished micro [1] - [3] and are currently working on [4]. There is a chance that the degree's should be ratcheted up by one. I have the retracement ratios on the chart.

We should finish up [5] in quick order tomorrow that will complete sub-minuette i.

My channel assumes that [4] has made its low. There is a good chance it has not. I will adjust the channel if needed.

ES

The equity markets had a nice recovery after early morning weakness. We had a 18 handle range and volume was better than average.

It appears that we are impulsing up from the 1014.75 L. Outside of the 1st wave everything is nice and clean.

I have caved in and will assume that minute [iv] has finished at 1014.75 (notice the 38.2% retrace). The big reason has to do with how crappy the internals are. I just can't believe that we would be ready to launch with where the internals sit.

Take a look at the daily candle registered again today. I know I have been referring back to the mid June period a lot, but look how similar structure is. The chart is telling us something folks.

I would like to say that minuette (i) finished at today's high, but I believe that 1032.75 finished sub-minuette iii. We should see one more push higher to complete (i). This of course assumes I'm correct in my assessment of structure.

Pay attention to price action when we get to the mid-line.

Near terms targets include the 61.8% projection of [i] - [iii] at 1039.50, while [v] = [i] - [iii] at 1046.50.

I do believe that price works its way higher, however, I no longer think we will get as high as I originally thought.

On a totally different subject, I couldn't get on eChat today. Have we shut the room down? Perhaps someone would be kind enough to post in the comments.

Edit: I forgot to mention the dollar's action today. Complete crushville! What the hell happened? Somehow it held support, but it doesn't appear it will for long. I believe were now down to a 1 outer - at best.

Edit: I came out very well on my globex trade. Had my stop in the right place :)

ES Intraday

There is definitely no triangle in play. This is what I'm currently looking at.

It appears that we are impulsing off the 1014.75 L, however, I really don't like what would be a sub-minuette i wave that started us out.

Nice hit on the 38.2% retracement. The 1:1 came in at 1014.25.

The minute degree waves may or may not stay.

Notice the nice channel action as well.

ES

Pretty choppy, pretty slow, pretty uneventful sums up today's action. Range was 11.75 handles, though volume was about average.

Don't like these daily candles. Small bodied spinning tops/doji like.

I really don't have a perferred count. I show several possibilities on chart. My guess is that we either have a triangle in play or some complex 4 wave.

It's also possible that i'm worried about nothing and we have put in some i-ii, [1]-[2]'s and it's ready to take off. Problem with this count is the internals are not matching up.

If we are tracing a triangle, my bet is that d has not completed and needs additional work, as talked about in eChat. Remember that triangle leg's need to be 3's. d appears to be a 5.

As mentioned last night, it feels like my count should be further along in the process than what I have it at.

I do have some fib projections (white) on the chart that are taken from the 1018.25 L, 1038 H, and 1020.25 L.

I would expect some type of resolution of whatever the structure is tomorrow (I hope).

FWIW I'm long 1023 with a 1020 stop.

Crude

Crude put in a doji day. Range was 1.97, while volume was considerably less than yesterday.

As expected, it appears that micro [5] finished up today. If this is correct, sub-minuette c and minuette (b) would have completed as well.

Price action does not appear to be impulsive off the 70.67 L. Perhaps we will see something complex for (b), or maybe c is still incomplete.

I'm satisfied that [5] finished, as it counts fairly well. I do have an alternate that may come into play. It's possible that the 5 waves down only finished a. This would imply that minuette (a) finished at the 75 H in a double zigzag.

Don't forget that this is a minute [b] wave that price is tracing. B waves are notorious for being complex.

Notice the monster positive RSI divergence registered at the 70.67 L.

We need additional information to make a determination of what exactly structure is up to. Should we takeout today's low, I would more than likely switch to the alternate count.