Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market was the laggard of the grains this week.

In the Tuesday update, I postulated that I thought this market had finished wave (4) and (5) was underway. I will stick with that assessment, however, my confidence is on the low side.

Although it sniffed the 10/23 H, price never made a serious challenge to overtake it. It was was weak attempt, in my opinion.

Being a 4th wave, it's possible that it needs additional work. If this is the case, it may be in the process of tracing something complex. A flat, triangle, or combination may very well be in cards.

I don't believe we had a 5th wave failure, though I guess it is possible.

Should price trade through the 365.25 L, then that will seal the deal on a wave (5) being in force.

The broken 200 sma is directly underneath for support, as well as the channel boundary.

We also have an established RSI uptrend that may very well act as support.

More than likely, I will need to up the degrees by one notch. I am going to hold off on this another week.

Bottom line - I will maintain my near-term bullish bias for the time being.

Prices basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
A breakout week for beans. Price traded through the 1029.50 H, and more importantly, the 1041.50 H.

This more than likely signals that primary [C] of a double zigzag of cycle c has commenced.

There is still an outside chance that we are still tracing primary [B], though I believe those odds are low.

Upside targets are where (3) = (1) at 1100.50, and (3) = 161.8% of (1) at 1192.75. [C] = [A] at 1174.

Drilling down intraday, you see that price is having a struggle getting past the 1050 level. This happens to be the 127.2% expansion of (2), which does get my attention, but my guess is it will be short lived as resistance.

Bottom line - It was sort of a messy start to this leg, but things appear to be progressing in impulsive fashion. I am near-term bullish this market until proven otherwise.

Price basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
Big breakout week in the wheat market.

Price confidently traded through the primary [1] high, suggesting that primary wave [3] was underway, and more specific, a "third of third."

The alternative is that [2] is still tracing and this is nothing more than a (C) leg on a coke binge.

I believe this little pullback is nothing more than a smaller degree 4 wave, possible of minor degree, though it may very well be intermediate.

Since we have decisively broken out of the down channel, we should expect it to become support if price were to trade that low.

Notice how price has supported on the 200 sma after breaking through.

Upside targets include [3] = [1] at 623.25, and [3] = 161.8% of [1] at 706.75.

Bottom line - I am near-term very bullish this market. Any trade through the intermediate (1) H of 528.25 would quickly change this view.

Prices basis December contract.

Crude, Corn, Wheat, Gold

Crude basically played out as expected today.

We finished tracing a (4)th wave and put in a somewhat sloppy (5)th, though the smaller degree 3rd was nice.

I'm still not real sure about this structure. This is looking goofy to me.

I still think there is a good shot this turns out being a corrective. I will let structure dictate that.

As it stands now, I will assume that [3] completed at the 79.85 H. This means a [4] wave tomorrow. Should price retrace down to the 78 level, I think that would signal that the 79.85 H actually finished [5].

Globex has been unusually active tonight - not sure why.

I wanted to update the price action in the grain markets.

Wheat is signaling that it's game on. I believe this market is in a "third of a third" currently - where the money is made.

It appears that there is a lot left in the tank.

I have notched up my degree's by one from the weekend update.


The corn market has had impulsive price action as well.

Although this market counts a little different than wheat, I believe it is telling us that (4) is finished.

I have not changed the degree's as of yet, but it appears that they will need to go up a notch as well.

I will give a more detailed update on both these markets this weekend.


I also wanted to bring your attention to the gold market.

This looks like a parabolic rise to me. If this is the case, It could get crazy in this market.

You can never be certain where the damn things end, as the waves just keep subdividing. It's best to wait for price to break the arc before taking a stab at a short line.

Generally speaking, price usually makes a B-line back down to the 61.8% retracement level, where a meaningful bounce takes place.

I put the fib levels on the chart, however, this assumes that price is finished on the upside. This is probably not the case.

The pattern itself calls for 100% retracement when complete. We'll see.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market traded higher this past week after retesting the broken channel.

I interpret structure to still be tracing intermediate (4) of primary [A].

It's possible that wave (4) has completed and (5) has started. I don't believe this is the case though.

Being a 4 wave, there is always the chance of a triangle or some type of complex pattern.

Should (4)'s price low be in, we can start to get upside projections. (5) = 61.8% of (1) - (3) at 428.25.

RSI has done a good job of maintaining its uptrend line. We should expect to see our customary divergence when (5) completes.

A critical level remains the price extreme of (1) at 347.60. Should price trade through that level, then we would have to take another look at structure.

Bottom line - I'm expecting some more grinding away in this wave (4) this upcoming week.

Price basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
The bean market traded higher this past week after bouncing off the daily 50 sma.

Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave.

Price action off the 951.25 L does not appear impulsive. This suggests that (2) needs additional work. Should this be the case, the channel will be in jeopardy.

The 880.25 L is a critical level. Any trade through this price invalidates this leg being a (2).

A triangle may still be in play, whether an [X] or [B].

The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.

Bottom line - It appears that wave (3) will need to wait a little longer. I'm expecting downside pressure for the upcoming week.

Price basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.

I interpret structure to be in intermediate (2) of primary [A].

It is unclear if we are still tracing minor B of (2), or if wave (2) has actually completed. My guess is that we are in the finishing stages of minor B , with C down to follow.

The alternative is that (2) completed at the 487.75 L and we have put in some smaller degree 1's and 2's.

Notice that we are back at the channel. This would be a good spot to complete B.

Any trade through the 574.75 H would signal that (3) has commenced.

The dotted vertical lines in the RSI pane represent Gann dates. The last 2 have been spot on for very tradable lows. The next date takes place on December 2nd.

Bottom line - I'm expecting price to start retracing very soon. The retracement levels are on the chart.

Prices basis December contract.

The grains have had big reactions off of the moons as of late. We have a moon on Monday the 16th.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market continued retracing its leg off the 302 L this past week.

My interpretation remains that this market is tracing an intermediate degree (4) wave of primary [A].

I still have concerns about this (4) wave. As discussed last week, it appears to be tracing a zigzag. After such a deep A leg, we are left with little room for C. We did have a nice B leg up that helps.

The price extreme of (1) is 347.60. Should price trade through that level, I would have to re-think my assessment of the structure.

The 50 sma has turned up, and is now above the 347.60 level. This may possibly help support price when they meet.

Notice that RSI has reached the upward sloping trend line, which dates back to early June. This may provide support as well.

Don't forget about the "point of recognition" at the 353 level, an additional possible level of support.

C = 61.8% of A at 365.25. The 78.6% projection of A sits at 356. The 61.8% retracement of (3) comes in at 349.50.

Bottom line - Until 347.60 is traded through, I maintain my bullish stance.

Prices basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
The bean market continued with its wave (2) retracement this past week.

Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave. The primary [B] wave triangle is still my alternate view.

Drilling down intraday shows a very nice ABC corrective so far for wave (2). Price had a nice deep 88.6% retrace.

Perhaps it will want the reciprocal, 112.8% of A, for this C leg. This comes in at 944.

Other targets are where C = A at 953.75, and the 161.8% projection of A at 911.25.

The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.

As stated last week, I am still hopeful that the channel can maintain its integrity during this retracement process. It has supported twice thus far, making it vulnerable for a break, should price reach it.

The key levels for this upcoming week include the 880.25 L, as well as the 1029.50 H. Any trade through that high will likely signal that wave (3) has begun, assuming our assessment is correct.

I maintain a keen watch of the continued RSI divergence.

Bottom line - I expect wave (2) to come to a close shortly. We should witness nice upside price action with the onset of (3).

Prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
Like the other grain markets, wheat continued its corrective process this past week.

I interpret structure to be in minor C of intermediate (2) of primary [A].

The nice B wave bounce that I was hoping for came to fruition this past week. Notice the unmistakable zigzag look of (2).

I have the retracement levels of (1) on the chart. The 78.6% level sits at 468.50.

The minimum downside objective for this C leg is the 61.8% projection of A at 475. Equality is down at 441.75.

Notice that RSI has broken its uptrend line. This is normal and allows RSI to reset for a big (3) wave push higher.

Naturally, any trade through the 302 L invalidates this interpretation.

Bottom line - Expecting price to continue working on the (2) wave. When complete, we should witness hard upside price action, that should leave the channel in the dust.

All prices basis December contract.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
As expected, the corn market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.

Based on structure, my interpretation is that this market indeed made an important tradable bottom at the 302 L.

I believe structure is in the process of completing minor 5 of intermediate (3) of primary [A]. It is unclear if 5 has finished or not. It may need an additional leg higher, but appears complete to me.

Once 5 finishes, if not already, we should see an intermediate degree corrective.

The 38.2% retracement of (1) sits at 374. This is right in the middle of the 4th of lessor degree.

Notice that we have broken out from the channel, suggesting that the move off the 707 H has indeed completed. Also notice that price blew right through the 200 sma.

The critical level to watch is the price extreme of (1), which is 347.60. Should this retracement trade through that level, then something is obviously wrong.

Bottom line - I am expecting a retracement process for the upcoming week, assuming 5 has finished. Be on the alert for a triangle or some type of complex pattern due to the form that (2) took.

All prices basis December contract.

SOYBEANS
It was upside price action for the soybean market this past week.

My interpretation remains the same. Primary [C] of cycle b of supercycle (a).

It is possible that structure has completed a 5 wave move higher off the 878.75 L. I have this labeled as intermediate (1).

It is also worth mentioning that I have a triangle alternate view. Price needs to take out the 1040 H to invalidate this count.

Should (1) be complete, I have put the retracement levels on the chart. I would like to see price maintain channel integrity on the retrace.

The key levels to watch for the upcoming week are the 1040 H and the 878.75 L.

The minimum upside objective is 1060.25, where [C] = 61.8% of [A]. [C] = [A] 1172.50.

There is a cycle peak due Tuesday.

We do have a slight RSI divergence as well. RSI last peaked at the early August highs. Price has made two successive highs while RSI made lower highs each time. This is something to watch.

Bottom Line - I will assume that all systems are still a go for the preferred count until proven otherwise.

Look for some wave (2) retracement for the upcoming week.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market, like the other grain markets, saw nice upside price action this past week.

I interpret structure to be in minor 5 of intermediate (1) of primary [A]. It is very possible that we are much further along in this count than I am giving it credit for.

It is unclear, but we may have completed minor 5 on Friday. If so, that would also finish (1).

We tested both the channel and 200 sma this past week, and failed them for the time being.

Friday's action finished very ugly. They put in a nice shooting star candle on heavy volume. Basically, price got to resistance, where it was sold hard. Not a very bullish development.

Bottom line - As stated last week, I need to see a channel break and an impulse higher to get 100% behind a cycle degree bottom. I believe both are forthcoming, however, we have not seen them yet for confirmation.

All prices basis December contract.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market broke through prior 4th wave resistance with impulsive price action.

As per my update earlier in the week, it appears that a primary degree structure completed at the 302 L. This suggests that cycle wave c has finished, and thus supercycle (a) .

My interpretation has structure in minor wave 4 of intermediate (3) of primary [A] of cycle a of supercycle (b). A mouthful for sure. If correct, this suggests that a tradable bottom is in place for this market.

My alternate view is that the 302 L only finished primary [1] of c down. This would be a very bearish count for the corn market, should it be correct.

Since (a) down took the form of an abc , or a 3 wave structure, this leaves open the possibility of (b) being a flat, triangle, or zigzag.

Price ran into some important levels this week that acted as resistance. Notice that it also ran into the channel. It is no surprise that price was unsuccessful in its bid to move higher.

The channel will be one of the signals I need to fully back my current assessment, as well as a completed impulse.

Bottom line - The evidence is strongly suggesting that an important development has taken place at the 302 L. I will assume this to be the case, until proven otherwise.

Near-term should see upside price action after completion of this minor 4 wave. The 200 sma is directly overhead, chances are good that it will act as resistance.

All prices basis December contract.


SOYBEANS
The bean market spent the majority of the week consolidating/retracing.

Nothing has changed in my assessment of this market. Primary [C] of cycle b of supercycle (a) is where I show current structure. I still think that a triangle could actually be playing out.

Perhaps this is a big b wave combination. The 974.25 H, where I have [C], could be [W]. The 746.25 L could be the (A) leg of an [X] wave triangle, with the 1040 H as (B).

I have just never been satisfied with the 5 wave structure that completes [A] . Then trying to marry the front month and combined contracts with the continuous makes me think something other than a double zigzag is tracing.

Of course they could make it easy on me and just blow out the 1040 H, thereby, confirming my preferred count.

Targets remain the same, [C] = [A] at 1172.50. [C] = 61.8% of [A] at 1060.25, our minimum upside objective.

I don't see any decent cycle days for the upcoming week

Bottom line - I still anticipate higher price. It appears that we finished a minor degree 3 wave on Tuesday and look to be tracing 4. After completion, price should begin working higher.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market broke above 4th wave of lessor degree resistance in impulsive fashion.

I stated last week that I may be behind in the count. It appears that is indeed the case. The necessary structure is in place to say that 5 waves off the 725.25 H have completed at the 439.25 L.

My current interpretation has structure completing primary [5] of cycle V of supercycle (a) . Should this view be correct, a tradable bottom is in place.

With a 5 wave move from the early 2008 H, we can expect (b) to take the form of a zigzag. B wave zigzags generally retrace between 38.2% and 78.6% of the prior move. This is shown with the cyan tinted box.

RSI has really been warning that something was up. The positive divergence, which also shows up well on the weekly, was too great to ignore. Although I have discussed it for several weeks, I really dropped the ball on this one.

Drilling down intraday shows how I'm looking at this leg higher.

It is possible that the 529 H finished an impulse, however, I believe it counts best with a minor wave 3 completion up there.

483 becomes important with this view. This is the price extreme of 1, which should not be traded through.

It appears that the minute [c] leg (not shown) of this wave 4 corrective needs one more leg down to complete.

Bottom line - I do believe that something important has taken place in this market. Before I can get 100% behind it, I need to see an initial impulse wave. That is 3 sets of 5 waves.

Based on my count (which could be wrong) I see just 2 sets so far. I also need to see a 2-4 channel break, thereby, confirming a new primary trend.

It's always nice to see markets move into their next phase.

All prices basis December contract.

Edit: We have a new moon on Sunday the 18th. The last moon on the 4th, set the grains off. Lets see what happens.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market had strong upside price action this past week.

This week I'm showing the December contract instead of the usual continuous contract.

I'm not quite sure what's going on in this market. As strange as this sounds, I believe the 302 L (both contracts) either completed an important bottom, or we are in the early stages of much lower price.

I can make arguments both for and against each scenario. It does appear that we finished a 5 wave structure down off the 474.60 H (465.50 continuous).

Even though I show the bullish case on the chart, I favor the alternate. It's hard to imagine c being that small compared to a - not even getting to the 61.8% of a.

Then again, the technicals are telling me that price appears to want higher. Notice the monster positive RSI divergence that has developed over the last few months.

Also noteworthy, is the massive upside volume registered in this market since mid September.

I have discussed a [4] wave potential triangle in previous updates. The proportion with [1] is just to extreme in my opinion. It should be noted, however, that price has not exceeded the wave [4] H, as of yet.

They were nice enough to leave us hanging, as Friday's trade fell a few ticks shy on December, while the continuous had a perfect double top at 373.

Critical levels for the upcoming week are the wave [4] price extreme at the 376 H (373 continuous) and the 302 L.

Bottom Line - I'm unsure at this point what precisely structure is telling us. I can tell you that I need to see an impulse that takes out the channel before I can get behind a cycle degree bottom.

All prices basis December contract unless noted.

SOYBEANS
The bean market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.

My interpretation of structure has beans completing primary [B] of a double zigzag of cycle wave c. My alternate view is that primary [C] finished at the 1040 H and we have started cycle c down.

This structure reminds me of where the crude market was a few weeks ago. A [B] wave triangle is certainly possible and is a 2nd alternate.

If [B] is indeed finished, we should see 5 intermediate degree waves up that would finish [C], thus completing the double zigzag and cycle b.

Targets include [C] = [A] at 1172.50, while [C] = 61.8% of [A] at 1060.25, which is the minimum upside objective. The 78.6% retracement of a is at 1146.25.

Notice how the channel provided support and turned price higher.

I see no cycles of importance for the upcoming week ahead.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
Like the rest of the grains, the wheat market had a big upside week. It actually had 4 consecutive winning days in a row. This hasn't taken place since May.

My interpretation of structure has wheat completing minor 5 of intermediate (3) of primary [5] of cycle v at the 439.25 L. My alternate view is that primary wave [3] is still in process.

It is very possible that I'm behind in the count and this market in fact finished primary [5] at the 439.25 L.

One of my concerns is the fact that RSI has been big time divergent over the last several weeks (not shown on chart), which I have discussed in previous updates.

RSI actually registered its low on July 7. September 9th saw RSI make a higher low and has been trending higher since, while price continued to set multi-year lows.

Price tried to break out of the channel on Thursday, but was quickly rejected.

Also troubling, is the size of the retrace thus far. It came close to the 61.8% level, which would be considered "deep" for a 4th wave. Minor 5 was small in size, though it appears to have a clean structure.

486 is the line in the sand, as this is the price extreme of (1). Should price trade through that level, the structure will need to be reassessed.

Thursday's H-H cycle produced another H instead of the expected L.

The Sunday moon did wonders for the grain markets as a whole.

Bottom line - If my current count is correct, we should have 1 more leg lower that would put in an important bottom in this market. If by chance we have seen that low, price action will begin impulsing higher.

All prices basis continuous contract.

Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market closed down on the week after looking like it might breakout in the early part of the week.

My current interpretation has the corn market in the beginning stages of intermediate wave (3) of primary [5] of cycle c . My alternate view is that we are tracing a primary [4] wave triangle.

There is the possibility that primary [5] completed at the 302 L, however, I don't believe this to be the case.

The 347.50 H held, which was a key level of resistance. Structure still has not given any definitive confirmation as to what it wants near-term.

Drilling down intraday, the leg up off the 310 L appears to be corrective. This suggests that we may have a smaller degree minor 1 and 2 in place. We can't rule out that (2) has not yet finished.

If I have assessed structure correctly, we should begin to see hard downside impulsive price action. Friday was certainly a good start.

Though not shown on chart, 3 = 161.8% of 1 at 286. Intermediate (3) = (1) at 276.75. This fits in with the minimum objective of [5] at 278.25.

Key levels this week remain the 347.75 H and the 310 L.

I have included a fib set should (2) need additional work, or primary [5] being complete.

All prices continuous contract.

SOYBEANS
The bean market sold off hard this past week, particularly on Friday.

Based on my interpretation, structure is in intermediate (C) of primary [B] of cycle b. My alternate view is that primary [C] completed at the 1040 H and we have started cycle c down.

I have added a second alternate at the bottom of the chart. This is a speculative primary degree [B] wave triangle.

It appears that intermediate (B) was in fact complete at the 977.75 H. This means that we are currently in (C), if this is correct.

We are very near the lower boundary of the channel line, which may act as support. It is unclear if 5 waves down are finished, as there is always the chance of an extension, but it does look close.

This would be a convenient place for structure to turn. If not, (C) = (A) at 829.75.

I don't see anything of importance in the cycle area scheduled for this coming week.

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
Nothing new in the wheat market this past week as it continued to sell off.

My interpretation of structure has wheat in minor 5 of intermediate (3) of primary [5] of cycle v. My alternate view is that primary wave [3] is still in process.

It appears that minor 4 has completed at the 477.25 H. If correct, the minimum objective for 5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3, which sits at 439. Equality with 1 comes in at 414.25.

Intermediate (3) = (1) at 417.50.

The first clue that wheat is bottoming, will be a decisive break of the channel. RSI continues to sport a positive divergence on the daily time frame. Something to watch.

We are scheduled for a KoolsTools cycle low on Thursday.

At this point, structure suggests the downside is unfinished.

All prices continuous contract.

Edit: failed to mention that there will be a full moon on Sunday, October 4.