Gold

Weekend Update - Bonds, Crude, Dollar Index, Gold

Crude, Corn, Wheat, Gold

Crude basically played out as expected today.

We finished tracing a (4)th wave and put in a somewhat sloppy (5)th, though the smaller degree 3rd was nice.

I'm still not real sure about this structure. This is looking goofy to me.

I still think there is a good shot this turns out being a corrective. I will let structure dictate that.

As it stands now, I will assume that [3] completed at the 79.85 H. This means a [4] wave tomorrow. Should price retrace down to the 78 level, I think that would signal that the 79.85 H actually finished [5].

Globex has been unusually active tonight - not sure why.

I wanted to update the price action in the grain markets.

Wheat is signaling that it's game on. I believe this market is in a "third of a third" currently - where the money is made.

It appears that there is a lot left in the tank.

I have notched up my degree's by one from the weekend update.


The corn market has had impulsive price action as well.

Although this market counts a little different than wheat, I believe it is telling us that (4) is finished.

I have not changed the degree's as of yet, but it appears that they will need to go up a notch as well.

I will give a more detailed update on both these markets this weekend.


I also wanted to bring your attention to the gold market.

This looks like a parabolic rise to me. If this is the case, It could get crazy in this market.

You can never be certain where the damn things end, as the waves just keep subdividing. It's best to wait for price to break the arc before taking a stab at a short line.

Generally speaking, price usually makes a B-line back down to the 61.8% retracement level, where a meaningful bounce takes place.

I put the fib levels on the chart, however, this assumes that price is finished on the upside. This is probably not the case.

The pattern itself calls for 100% retracement when complete. We'll see.

Another interesting Martin Armstrong read

GOLD $5000+ 11/11/09

Weekend Update - #2

30 YR BONDS
The bond complex had a nice reversal Thursday, leading to a nice upside week.

The 50% retracement level did give way as expected, however, it was short lived. Notice that the channel gave near perfect support.

There are several layers of resistance directly overhead. This includes the 50 sma, the broken base channel, and the small down channel.

One possibility is that structure may be tracing a small triangle here, with the Thursday low of 117-10 being the [b] leg.

If that's the case, this would suggest a zigzag, which means this would likely be an X wave. Any trade through the 120-15 H or 117-10 L would invalidate this view.

Of course, we have to watch for a flat as well.

Bottom line - If a little triangle scenario is play, we are likely range bound in this market for the next couple of weeks.

Price basis combined contract.

CRUDE
The crude market corrective continues. We have now registered 17 trading day's in a sideways market.

Although this chop has been difficult to discern from a pattern standpoint, it has been very tradable with plenty of range.

I show a simple (a)(b)(c) , though it's possible we are tracing a combination.

We have broken free of the 20 sma and appear headed for a meeting with the 50 sma, which is at 74.57 and rising.

This is one way of looking at the intraday structure.

If part of a combination, or (w)(x)(y), then we should be finishing up a sub-minuette c with the completion of an upcoming [5] wave.

If we are getting ready to finish a iii wave, then [5] will need to make a decent move down, as the price extreme of i is 76.71.

I suspect this is an abc that ends a (y) wave.

Bottom line - near-term it appears that we should see at least one more leg down. We can reassess at that point.

All prices basis continuous contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
New lows for the dollar this past week.

I have changed the labels to better align with the continuous contract. The continuous clearly shows a 4th wave triangle, while the combined would be considered a "cheater."

It appears that we had 5 waves down off of the spike high of 77.50. If it is a minute degree, structure would be complete. Any degree less, argues for a 1st wave.

Confirmation of a change in trend will come from:

1. a clean channel break
2. closing of price above the 50 sma
3. RSI break of the 50% level
4. a 5 wave move higher (impulse)
5. completed downside structure

Until the above 5 take place - I will assume the dollar continues lower.

Price basis combined contract.

GOLD
The gold market continues to subdivide higher, reaching new highs in the process.

It's apparent that we are getting very close to this leg finishing. I am assuming that this will complete a minute degree wave [v] coming out of the triangle. Remember that triangles precede finishing moves.

If this interpretation is correct, we will complete an intermediate degree (B) wave at this moves conclusion.

As posted in previous updates, my alternate view is that there was no triangle, but a series of 1's and 2's. This means we would be in minor 3 of intermediate (3) up.

I am anxious to see what type of price action we get when this leg finishes subdividing. Whatever it completes should be tradable.

Sentiment continues to maintain over 90% bulls according to the DSI readings.

Bottom line - We keep going up until we don't. If I were long, and I'm not, I would use Friday's low as a stop and perhaps trail it up.

Weekend Update - #2

30 YR BONDS
The 30 Yr failed its retest of the 50 sma, which resulted in nice downside price action for the week.

The 50% retracement level of the move off the 111-23 L, which I have labeled (X)?, supported price again. I believe this level gives way rather soon.

Equality comes in at 114-16. The minimum downside objective is 116-26.

My guess is that price wants to test the 114-26 pivot. The 78.6% retracement level is in the same area.

The bigger picture still remains unclear to me. If the 30 YR did put in an intermediate (X) wave at the 123-25 H, this would mean there is another (A)(B)(C) that should play out to the downside.

Bottom line - I still expect to see another 5 waves down of minor degree, at minimum. We will reassess at that point.

CRUDE OIL
The crude market continues with its corrective off the October 21 H. We have spent 12 trading days in this choppy sideways pattern.

Until structure suggests otherwise, I will continue to assume that we finished a minute degree wave [i] at the 81.99 H.

Friday's price action gave us a decisive close under the 20 sma. If we go back and retest the 20 sma with a failure, look for price to try and find its way back to the 50 sma, which is currently at 73.78 and rising.

I will reiterate from last weekend's update, this move off the 81.99 H in no way appears impulsive. This is suggestive of higher price.

The retracement levels of minute [i] (or whatever it turns out to be) are on the chart.

We are due a minor KoolsTools cycle low Wednesday.

Prices basis continuous contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
The greenback had a huge spike higher Tuesday, before spending the rest of the week retracing the move off the 75.085 L.

It appears that early morning spike was a "thrust" out of a (iv)th wave triangle. If correct, the 77.50 H completed a 5 wave structure that would be labeled minute [i].

The ensuing retracement would be the wave [ii] retracement. It is unclear if [ii] has finished or not. It has retraced 78.6% thus far, a perfect wave retracement in my opinion.

Notice that RSI has failed to breakout of the 50% level once again. This has become the rock of Gibraltar.

Also notice that price could not successfully close the 50 sma.

Both of these appear to be setup to give way when we get our next 5 waves up.

The 75.085 L is a critical level for this assessment. Should we trade through that price, we obviously have something wrong.

Prices basis combined contract.

GOLD
The gold market had hard upside price action this past week.

I stated last week that I was suspicious that minute [v] had in fact completed at the 1072 H. Those suspicions were confirmed with price action.

My best guess is that minute [iii] actually finished at the 1072 H, though I have it labeled as a minuette degree on the chart. It really doesn't matter, as this leg should finish off structure out of the triangle.

It appears that we should have one more small subdivision higher, though it certainly may be complete.

Once we can count a 5 wave move down, that will be our confirming evidence that intermediate (B) is finished.

Bottom line - it appears we are very near an intermediate degree top. Once in place, structure suggests that we should see price trace out an intermediate degree (C) leg down.

This should take price down to the price extreme of (A) around 700, assuming my interpretation is correct.

Price basis December contract.

Weekend Update - #2

30 YR BONDS
The bond complex caught a bid late in the week after weakness early on.

Notice how the 30 YR put in a reversal candle (bull engulfment) on Thursday, the same day we had an explosive equity market. Friday followed through to the upside, finding resistance at the 50 sma.

The lower boundary of the channel was broken, which setup a successful test of the 117-18 pivot. The 50% retracement level was in the same area.

It appears that we have a 5 wave structure down off the 123-25 H. If indeed a 5, then we know, at minimum, we will see another 5. I have labeled this leg as a minor degree 1 or part of an X wave.

Bottom line - I expect to see lower price after a retracement process.

All prices basis combined contract.

CRUDE
Strange week in the crude pits. Big reversal Thursday, followed by bigger reversal Friday.

Friday's price action confirmed my suspicion of this corrective being over.

I will keep my interpretation that we finished a minute degree [i] wave at the 81.99 H, though it is an educated guess at this point.

Support is very near with the 20 sma at 76.59. I have also placed the retracement levels on the chart.

I am considering the possibility that minor B has yet to complete, though it is a low probability at this point.

One thing is apparent, the price action off the 81.99 H is corrective - not impulsive. This suggests that we should see new recovery highs in this market once the retracement process is complete.

The dotted vertical lines on the chart are placed at the pivot lows starting with the wave (A) bottom. Notice the fairly nice symmetry between these pivot lows, though not perfect by any means.

Should this symmetry extend out to the next pivot, it appears that we are somewhere around the halfway mark currently.

Prices basis continuous contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
Strong impulsive upside price action for the bucky this past week.

It appears that structure has traced 5 waves up off of the 75.08 L. The question now is - has the dollar bottomed?

Though it's much to early to make that determination, everything is in place for this to be the case.

Notice how RSI tried to break out of the 50% level once again. Will it be successful this time? My guess is that it will, but it may need to pull back again to get a running start.

We are right at the upper boundary of the channel with the 50 sma directly overhead. Both of these are potential resistance.

The 78.085 L is critical support for a bullish case. Should price trade through that level, then obviously, the trend has not changed.

The 77.74 H would be the next logical important pivot that needs to be taken out to the upside.

Throwing the fibs on the impulse wave, assuming it is complete, yields targets of 77.615 (100%) and 78.629 (161.8%).

Bottom line - We should see another 5 wave move up, once the retracement process is finished, if not already. Regardless of whether "the bottom" is in, we should see higher price near-term.

Prices basis combined contract.

GOLD
The gold market turned down this past week, briefly breaking the channel before re-taking it with a big reversal candle.

This price action was unexpected by me. We obviously had no triangle, and hence no thrust. I took a stop on my calls. I only lost $.35 on the them, but I did have a decent amount.

On the chart, I show minute [v] completing at the 1069 H, in a truncated (v)th. This would finish minor C, and thus intermediate (B), if correct.

EWI has this thrust out of the triangle labeled complete, however, they have (v) ending at the high of 1072.

I have my suspicions that [v] is in fact finished. If complete, it is a very unsatisfactory (v) wave in my opinion.

We should know very shortly. If complete, we will start seeing impulsive downside price action.

If the bigger picture view of an expanded flat is correct, the downside objective would ultimately be somewhere around the 700 level, as this is where the price extreme of (A) is.

Should the expected scenario play out over the next several months, it should provide a nice opportunity to get long(er), as an investment.

Key levels to watch for the upcoming week are the Thursday reversal candle low of 1026.90, as well as, the wave (i) price extreme of 1011.10.

I also believe any trade through the 1068.80 H would be a good hint, or clue, that there is unfinished work on the upside.

All prices basis December contract.

Weekend update - #2

30 YR BONDS
The long bond filled its 10/13 gap, then had downside price action to finish this past week.

Price has again found the lower boundary of the channel. Should the channel give way, price looks destined to test the 117-18 L.

Sure has a Head and Shoulders look to it. If this is the case, then it would target out down around the 114-26 L.

If you look at this market on a wider scale, say since late 2007, it certainly has the appearance of a huge H/S topping pattern. Should this pattern be in play, it suggests much lower price.

Near-term, any trade through the 118-20 L, gives the minimum amount for 5 waves off the 123-25 H.

All prices basis combined contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
Fresh new lows for the bucky this past week - not unexpected.

My interpretation remains the same. Minuette wave (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C). We inch closer and closer to an important bottom.

Price found support at the 78.6% retracement of the primary [A] leg off the 71.05 L. We are very near the minimum downside objective of 74.79, which is where 5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3.

Notice that RSI supported on its rising trend line, again giving positive divergence. Pay attention to the 50% level (upper trend line) to see whether it can finally break through.

I'm not sure this would signal an end to the downtrend, however, I do believe it would be meaningful.

Bottom line - As mentioned last week, this trend is very mature. It could end at anytime. Any upside price action should be viewed with suspicion, until an impulse has taken place with a channel break.

All prices basis combined contract.

CRUDE OIL
The crude market finished the week with another positive gain.

We finished something at the 81.99 H. I believe it was a minuette wave (v), which would complete a minute degree wave.

I'm entertaining the idea that it just may be a [iii] wave. The retracement will give us a better idea.

The 38.2% retracement level is 77.17, while the 50% sits at 75.68.

The triangle target is 83.99. The continuous contract numbers can change when they put on a new front month, which is why this number is slightly different.

Bottom line - the retracement process does not appear complete to me. Should price trade through the 81.99 H, then it will be obvious that (v) has not finished.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The gold market continued its consolidation this past week.

My interpretation of structure has this market tracing a minuette wave (iv) of minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (B). An alternate view is that this is minor 3 of intermediate (3).

I believe structure is winding up for a nice thrust higher.

Drilling down intraday, shows that (iv) appears to be tracing a triangle. In fact, it may be complete, as of Friday's price action.

If so, it measures 28.30, which would give a target of 1078.70. This is right in the area of the B wave triangle target of 1076.80.

Notice the form that wave (ii) took, a sharp zigzag. The guideline of alternation (p. 63-64 Elliott Wave Principle) suggests that we should be looking for a sideways, and perhaps complex corrective for (iv) . Exactly what we got.

It is possible that this structure is not a triangle at all, but some type of combination. The ultimate result should be the same - upside price action.

I put on a moderate line of November 103 GLD calls today when price reacted at the lower boundary line. I will use a GC break of the c leg at 1048 as my stop.

Bottom line - It appears to me that we still have some upside pressure left for price. If I'm right in my assessment of structure, once we conclude our next leg higher, we should see an intermediate degree correction.

All prices basis December contract

Weekend Update - #2

30 YR BONDS
The bond market sold down after a failed test of the 200 sma, with Monday being the big down day.

Bigger picture structure remains unclear. I show a potential intermediate (X) wave in place at the 123-25 H.

Price has reached the lower boundary of the channel. A bounce of some type should not be unexpected.

Key levels to watch for the upcoming week are the 123-25 H and the 117-18 L. Should that 117-18 L give way, I suspect that the 114-26 L will be reached in short order.

The retracement levels from the corrective off the 111-24 L are on the chart.

All prices basis combined contract.

DOLLAR INDEX
The worlds largest supply of toilet paper saw decent downside price action this past week.

I interpret structure to be in minuette (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B]. A lot of ending 5's are very near folks.

Notice how the 50 sma has held price in check since July.

Noteworthy as well, look at the RSI action since it registered its low in early June. It has consistently been turned back down from the 50% level. In fact, this has happened 6 different times.

There is big positive divergence, forewarning that a change of trend may soon be at hand.

The DSI readings continue to point to a one way trade here. As has been mentioned in these posts numerous times, this can not go on indefinitely.

5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3 at 74.79. This is the minimum downside objective that would be expected to be reached.

Bottom line - This trend is very mature at this point in time. Be aware that it could end at anytime. As always, an impulse off a low with a channel break will give confirming evidence.

Price basis combined contract.

Crude
Hard upside price action in the crude pits this past week.

It is unclear whether crude broke free from a minor B wave triangle or not, as I show on the chart.

Price action certainly resembles a "thrust" that would be expected.

If a triangle, it measures to 84.33.

There is also the possibility that this is part of a combination corrective, and perhaps a combo that is not finished. That has yet to be determined.

Bottom line - price action does not appear finished in this move higher, however, it should be close to needing a retracement.

I am anticipating any retrace to be shallow and short lived.

I am a little bummed out that this didn't setup properly, which would have allowed me to put together a decent long line via calls :( This however, is how the market operates.

Price basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The gold market set another new all-time high this past week, printing 1072.

My interpretation of structure has this market in minuette (iv) of minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (C). The alternate view is a very bullish minor 3 of intermediate (3).

As pointed out in Thursday's post, it is unclear which peak (iii) finished at, 1062.50 or 1072.

Once (iv) completes, we should see another leg higher that would complete [v], and thus C.

If this assessment is correct, then the bulk of gains have already occurred. Of course, there is always the possibility that (v) could extend.

Bottom line - we should see another push higher before a meaningful correction.

Price basis December contract.

Gold

Checking in on the gold 60 minute continuous contract.

This market made news highs on Monday and Tuesday, reaching 1072, before starting to correct. This is very close to the 1076.80 triangle target.

It's unclear exactly where this minuette degree (iii) wave finished. I have the 1072 H shown on the chart, however, it may very well have ended at the 1062.50 H. This is the alternate count at the bottom.

This would entail an expanded flat for (iv). The leg I have labeled as sub-minuette v is a mess. It counts much better as a corrective.

I wouldn't be surprised if (iv) turns into something more complex, as it has that look like it needs additional time and/or price.

We have had huge negative RSI readings with each successive peak since the 1045 area.

The 200 sma supported this corrective thus far. If price gets through the 20 sma, I would expect the 50 sma to repel price back to the 20 sma, before it can make another attack on the 50 sma. Basic major moving average stuff.

If this interpretation is correct, then we should have an additional leg higher to complete minute [v], and thus minor C.

As I have stated in previous posts, I may be ahead in the count. It's possible that we would only complete minute [iii]. That is one of my alternate views, with another being that this witch is going lots higher.

1011 is the price extreme of (i). Should this level be traded through, then obviously something is wrong.

Weekend Update #2

30 YR BONDS
The bond market reversed late in the week on increasing volume.

Price rejected off the 200 sma before finding support at the 50 sma.

It is unclear to me if the move off the 114-26 L should be counted as a 5 or 3. It sure looks like a nice zigzag to me.

If it's a 5, like I show on the chart, there is 4-1 overlap.

My best guess at this point is that price is tracing an intermediate (X) wave. It may or may not have completed at the 123-25 H.

All prices basis combined contract.

CRUDE
The crude market continued higher this past week as expected.

My interpretation of the crude structure remains the same. I have price tracing minuette (c) of minute [d] in a minor B triangle of intermediate (B). My alternate view is that this is a minute [iv] triangle.

Price ran into the upper boundary of the corrective channel and was initially repelled, but finished Friday's trade closing above it. This also closes price above the daily 50 sma.

I show minuette (a) completing at the 71.39 H, however, it is possible that it actually finished at the 71.97 H.

In Thursday's update I mentioned some reservations I had with this [d] leg structure (read that post for specifics). Triangle legs can be difficult to discern, and generally are.

I'm not real concerned with exactly how the internal structure traces out. Just be aware that this wave could end at any time.

Should price trade through the 75.89 H or the 61.38 L, this would invalidate the triangle view

We are scheduled for a nice KoolsTools cycle peak on Friday. The last 3 L-L's have actually given the next low.

Bottom line - I still expect price to make its way higher, finishing off this leg.

All prices basis November contract unless noted.

DOLLAR INDEX
The greenback made fresh lows on the week, maintaining its leading role as the worlds largest supply of toilet paper.

My interpretation has structure completing minute [iii] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] at the 75.68 L. My alternate view is that low finished minute [v], thus primary [B].

Should [iii] be complete, then we should be in the beginning stages of [iv]. Any trade through the 77.795 L, the price extreme of [i], will suggest that perhaps it was wave [v] that finished at the 75.68 L.

The move off that low certainly appears corrective in nature.

Bottom line - I maintain my near-term bearish stance. If my assessment is correct, we are getting closer to a turning point, however, were not quite there yet.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The gold market shot higher this past week on heavy volume reaching all-time highs.

My interpretation has structure in minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (B). This is actually a bearish view. The bullish alternate view has structure in minor 3 of intermediate (3) up to god knows how high.

Notice how we went from one side of the channel to the other, finding resistance on the upper boundary and previous high print. There were also plenty of fibo relationships there as well, almost assuring us of at least a pause.

It appears that minuette (iii) completed at the 1062.70 record high. If correct, we should currently be tracing (iv). I have placed wave (iii) retracement levels on the chart.

(ii) was a sharp zigzag, therefore, suggesting that (iv) should be relatively flat and possibly complex.

I mentioned last week that I thought price may not be able to reach its triangle target of 1076.80, which by the way, is right in the area of where [v] = [i] - [iii] Obviously, based on price action thus far, it could easily attain that level - should that be in the cards.

If (iv) has traced its low, which is doubtful, then (v) = 61.8% of (i) - (iii) at 1092.30. The 426.6% projection of (i) sits at 1092.80.

Should this retrace get out of hand, the price extreme of (i) = 1011. The line in the sand level.

There was a H-H cycle that came in on Friday based on the 6/3 and 8/6 dates. This suggests that we should see some downside pressure, fitting right in with structure.

Bottom line - I expect to see an additional push higher once this retrace is complete.

All prices basis December contract.

Weekend Update #2

30 YR BONDS
The long bond had nice impulsive upside price action this past week.

Price ran into a bevy of resistance including the 200 sma, the 4th of lessor, a 1:1 price projection, as well as the price extreme of intermediate (A) (red dotted line).

I am still unsure of what exactly is playing out with structure. I suspect this is tracing out a primary [B] wave, though far from certain about that. Perhaps this is an intermediate (X) wave of a double zigzag. Again, I'm not sure.

I do show some potential counts at the bottom of the chart. Notice the super bullish count. This would suggest that a major bottom has been put in. I think that is a very remote (at best) possibility.

It does appear that near-term price has not finished going up. Not sure it gets as high as that gap, but it's a big target.

The more structure we see, the better idea we get of what's happening in this market.

All prices basis combined contract.

CRUDE
The crude market rebounded strongly this week, which was not unexpected.

My interpretation has structure in minute [d] leg of a minor B wave triangle of intermediate (B). My alternate view is that this is a minute [iv] wave triangle.

The triangle form continues to take a recognizable shape. I'm showing the continuous contact. You will notice that it counts a little different than the front month November contract, but both are currently in the same place.

It appears that we have finished minuette (a) of minute [d]. It is not clear if we have completed (b) yet. It may need additional work, but looks close to being done.

If this is correct, we should see (c) up unfold this coming week. The projected upper boundary line looks to come in around 74.50ish. (c) = (a) at 74.66, with the 78.6% of (a) at 73.30.

Key levels are the 75.41 H, which is the price extreme of [b], and the 65.05 L, which is the price extreme of [c]. We don't want to see price get much above/below these levels.

Critical support is the 61.56 L. This is the price extreme of [a]. If my assessment of the internal structure of the triangle is incorrect and [c] is still tracing, then it will need to maintain above this level.

We can come up with general upside targets, as [c] appears complete. The continuous contract measures 15.45, while the November contract only measures 14.51.

This gives targets of 80.50 and 79.56 respectively. Calculations were based on the 65.05 L of [c]. Whenever [e] finishes, we will want use that price for measurement purposes. This will more than likely give higher targets.

The cycle didn't disappoint. Perhaps the next cycle low will determine the end of [e]? This is scheduled to come in 10 trading days from Friday, or October 16.

Bottom line - we are inching closer to entering the next phase of this market. Nobody will be more happy to see that than me. Correctives can drive a person mad - myself included.

Everything appears to be setup. Lets hope for follow through.

All prices basis continuous contract unless noted.

DOLLAR INDEX
The bucky finished relatively flat on the week.

I interpret structure to be in minuette (iv) of minute [iii] of intermediate (C) of primary [B]. My alternate count has primary [B] completing at the 76.045 L.

It appears that (iv) may have completed at the 77.735 H. It is unclear with all the chop and slop of the corrective waves.

Should this be incorrect, price can not trade through the 78.085 level. This would enter wave (i) territory, thus negating the current count.

This sure has channeled like crap the last couple of months. Price acts like it has yet to go through its minor degree wave 4.

I would love to be bullish this market, but I just can't get a clean impulse off the lows. There is 4-1 overlap right out of the gate. Perhaps it's a "cheater" as these do occasional happen.

Friday is setup for a decent KoolsTools cycle peak.

As pointed out last week, there is huge RSI divergence.

Bottom line - I'm still cautiously bearish this market.

All prices basis continuous contract.

GOLD
The gold market rebounded this past week, perhaps being the beneficiary of a flight from equities.

Nothing has changed with my current view of gold. Minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (B) is where I have structure.

Although not shown on the chart, my alternate would be that we finished minute [v] at the 1025.80 H. There is also the remote chance that we finished [i] at the 1025.80 H.

I believe that minute [iv] completed at the 985.50 L. It's a very nice ABC corrective. If this is correct, it appears that we may have put in minuette waves (i) and (ii) of [v].

Based on structure thus far, I'm not expecting price to make it to the triangle target at 1076.80. It's certainly possible that it does, however, its going to take a mighty [v] to get there.

We narrowly maintained channel support on a close basis. This should not be an issue, assuming the count is right.

This is a potential concern of mine. Sure looks like a double headed monster to me.

Should this fairly nice looking H/S play out, it measures down to the 940's. This is suggestive of a short-term top being in place. Not exactly what I'm looking for at this stage - hence the concern.

The cycle this past week played out as I thought it might. Whether it was an inversion or just a plain failure, it worked out. No cycles that I can see for this coming week.

Bottom line - I remain cautiously near-term bullish. Should we take out the 985.50 L, I will assume that two headed monster is in play.

All prices basis December contract.