Weekend Chart Update #2

Has C finished? Different day, same question. I have the same answer as well, I'm just not sure. This I can tell you - we have either finished 5, thus completing C, or we have finished 3 and are in the process of working on 4. Until prices and structure tell me I'm wrong, which they may be doing, I will continue with my current count of being in 4 of C.

Crude printed its low of 58.32 on Monday and rallied the rest of the week. We hit a high of 63.99 on Friday, coming within a whisper of the 38.2% at 64.07 (whole C wave). We surpassed the 38.2% of the move from wave 2 high, which was at 63.50.

If we break the channel and get through the 50% retrace from wave 2 high (65.08), I will assume that I'm wrong.

Just about everyone seems to think that crude is done with its b corrective move up. I do not fall in that camp. I believe that we finished a beautiful structured zigzag that is 1 degree lower. If I'm correct, then we should see the resumption of the counter-trend move up following this B (white). Target, at minimum, would be the 38.2% at around 89.

If everyone else is right, then we should see a pretty destructive C leg, sooner rather than later. I might add, that we do NOT have an impulse wave 1 from the high.

Look at the nice channel we have been in since the low. We broke out for a little throw-over at the swing highs, but settled back inside. It appears that the structure is complete with a nice fib relationship. Also, notice the RSI divergence, which has given us an additional clue.

What a beauty of an AB=CD off the bottom. I don't trade off a 15m chart (too big), but a person could have trailed a stop under the swing pivot lows and caught basically that whole move.

I will start next week looking to sell CL, expecting a downside structure to play out. As mentioned above, I will also be paying close attention to the channel line and 50% retrace level.

The dollar looks to have completed a little 4 wave triangle. If I'm interpreting the structure right the dollar should resume its downtrend and finish off its 5th.

The 61.8% minimum expected target for 5 is around 74.50. I could be entirely wrong, but I don't think it makes it that far. There is a lot of support in the 76-77 area.

Regardless of where it finishes this (C) leg, I think the dollar is poised to go lots higher. When we finish this 2 or B, we should then have upside for the foreseeable future.

Don't cry to me about the fundamentals and how the dollar deserves to probably go to zero. The structure says up - so I will plan accordingly.

The EURUSD cross appears to validate my short-term dollar bearishness. It is tracing out a very well defined 4 wave triangle. Although it came close, 4 never went into 1 territory, thus keeping this count alive.

AB=CD at about 1.485, which would complete a nice flat. The minimum 5th wave target would be the 61.8% at about 1.49. It looks like when this structure completes its counter-trend rally - it will be lights out. This also jives with my outlook for the dollar.

For the near term though, it looks like this can be bought with a pull back if your aggressive. If conservative, wait for a break over D.

The yellow metal had a decent week. Looks like the fork halted the up move. I am still looking for GC to move lower - that opinion has not changed.

If it makes a move above 949 Then I will get suspicious. If it moves above 992.10 then I will need to change to my alternate count at the bottom of chart.


Bonds fooled me as they made a decent move down last week. It appeared that they had finished A down, which can still be valid.

This could develop into a little flat for (A) to kick-start this B wave. In the end though, there is a big C waiting for its turn.

Weekend Chart Update #1

Where is the big upside gap? Beats the hell out of me. Couple of days ago my data no longer showed it. Hmmmm. I verified with my other data sources and this is correct.

Well, that non-gap had caused me to change my count. I have gone back to what I had originally thought best fit the structure. If this is correct, and I believe it is, beans are getting ready to hit the meat of their decline - wave 3 of 3.

Any print below 957.50 (A high) will confirm that the move from 680.75 has been corrective. AB=CD at 318.50...Gulp! Not sure that level is in the cards (not sure it isn't either), but the 61.8% comes in around 655, which would be considered a minimum level to look for.

Wheat finished off a nice ABC at the end of May and wasted no time in taking back that counter-trend move. If you went short the beginning of June you were screaming YAHTZEE! The joy of being short when your market falls 20 out of 25 days.

I had originally thought the structure was a big abc, but have changed my labels to reflect EWI's position, which we would end up in the same place at the same time, but why argue with the experts.

There is likely additional downside left in this market, however, it appears the majority of the damage has taken place.

Corn, just like Wheat, finished off a counter-trend move at the end of May and has been a shorts best friend since. Notice how narrow and steep the channel has been.

AB=CD at...well it's not going to get there (negative), but it may very well find the 61.8% near 147. We should see a bounce soon when 5 completes, which should complete (3) as well. Although, the easy money has been had, there should be additional downside left.

No question the grains have been the place to be short. I'm embarrassed to say that I have had zero participation in this lotto giveaway. I plan on finding my way into beans when trade opens Monday.

ES

As expected, we spent the majority of the day consolidating yesterday's gain. It appears that we had a triangle for 4 trace out (there are other possibilities). Total range on the day was 19.75 points. Volume came in a smidge better than yesterday, but still above its 20 day moving average.

We completed something up there today. I show us finishing off 3 (white). If correct, we should be in the process of working on 4. I have change some labels and degree's on my chart. The fib relationships were just getting goofy and still are in my opinion (among other things). I'm certainly not 100% satisfied of where we are in this structure, or how it has traced out.

What type of 4 should we be expecting here (or when it comes)? 2 (white) was complex, so based on the guideline of alternation, we should expect a sharp zigzag. This is just a guideline and not a certainty. You will notice that 2 was sharp and 4 was complex.


Here is a nice look at the channels. Also, notice the HUGE negative divergence on RSI. I think everything known to mankind was divergent up there.

The 23.6% comes in at 923. This fits well with 4 of lesser degree. Don't forget we have intraday gaps at 910.50 and 914. Maybe they actually have a decent retrace (yeah right). I think they used up all the retrace on 2...98.7%!


Nothing surprising here. I did, however, forget to reset this at pit open. I think it's about 5-6k higher than what actually occurred.











This is how a H/S is suppose to work folks. Don't know if it reaches its target or not, but the 161.8% sits in a convenient place for that to happen.

Much has been said about how the H/S pattern on the daily wouldn't work because everybody was keyed into it. My personal opinion is that is BS. Pattern's, regardless of what they are, happen everyday in the market. They happened 50 years ago and will happen 50 years from now. Some work - some don't.

What about the triangle today? Why did that work? Was it hidden from everybody except us in the eChat? I don't think so, yet it worked. Trendlines, moving averages, ect. ect. work everyday and everyone is aware of them. The daily H/S DID work. It just didn't reach a level that generally they reach.

The only certainties in the market are that everything is uncertain and that GS controls it for their benefit!

Crude

Crude continues its correction. It appears that it completed an abc at days end to finish off, what I have labeled, (a) of a bigger complex corrective. If correct, then this would be a WXY double three.

I don't get caught up in the count folks with this market. If you scalp (like me), there is huge range that affords plenty of profit potential.

I will say it again, I'm suspicious that 5 of C could be complete. I am maintaining this count until proven otherwise.

P.S. Hope you noticed the 78.6% retrace and 127.2% projection on today's abc - reciprocals again!

Crude

Crude has had a nice ABC that maintained channel integrity. This looks complete to me.