Weekend Chart Update #2

Has C finished? Different day, same question. I have the same answer as well, I'm just not sure. This I can tell you - we have either finished 5, thus completing C, or we have finished 3 and are in the process of working on 4. Until prices and structure tell me I'm wrong, which they may be doing, I will continue with my current count of being in 4 of C.

Crude printed its low of 58.32 on Monday and rallied the rest of the week. We hit a high of 63.99 on Friday, coming within a whisper of the 38.2% at 64.07 (whole C wave). We surpassed the 38.2% of the move from wave 2 high, which was at 63.50.

If we break the channel and get through the 50% retrace from wave 2 high (65.08), I will assume that I'm wrong.

Just about everyone seems to think that crude is done with its b corrective move up. I do not fall in that camp. I believe that we finished a beautiful structured zigzag that is 1 degree lower. If I'm correct, then we should see the resumption of the counter-trend move up following this B (white). Target, at minimum, would be the 38.2% at around 89.

If everyone else is right, then we should see a pretty destructive C leg, sooner rather than later. I might add, that we do NOT have an impulse wave 1 from the high.

Look at the nice channel we have been in since the low. We broke out for a little throw-over at the swing highs, but settled back inside. It appears that the structure is complete with a nice fib relationship. Also, notice the RSI divergence, which has given us an additional clue.

What a beauty of an AB=CD off the bottom. I don't trade off a 15m chart (too big), but a person could have trailed a stop under the swing pivot lows and caught basically that whole move.

I will start next week looking to sell CL, expecting a downside structure to play out. As mentioned above, I will also be paying close attention to the channel line and 50% retrace level.

The dollar looks to have completed a little 4 wave triangle. If I'm interpreting the structure right the dollar should resume its downtrend and finish off its 5th.

The 61.8% minimum expected target for 5 is around 74.50. I could be entirely wrong, but I don't think it makes it that far. There is a lot of support in the 76-77 area.

Regardless of where it finishes this (C) leg, I think the dollar is poised to go lots higher. When we finish this 2 or B, we should then have upside for the foreseeable future.

Don't cry to me about the fundamentals and how the dollar deserves to probably go to zero. The structure says up - so I will plan accordingly.

The EURUSD cross appears to validate my short-term dollar bearishness. It is tracing out a very well defined 4 wave triangle. Although it came close, 4 never went into 1 territory, thus keeping this count alive.

AB=CD at about 1.485, which would complete a nice flat. The minimum 5th wave target would be the 61.8% at about 1.49. It looks like when this structure completes its counter-trend rally - it will be lights out. This also jives with my outlook for the dollar.

For the near term though, it looks like this can be bought with a pull back if your aggressive. If conservative, wait for a break over D.

The yellow metal had a decent week. Looks like the fork halted the up move. I am still looking for GC to move lower - that opinion has not changed.

If it makes a move above 949 Then I will get suspicious. If it moves above 992.10 then I will need to change to my alternate count at the bottom of chart.


Bonds fooled me as they made a decent move down last week. It appeared that they had finished A down, which can still be valid.

This could develop into a little flat for (A) to kick-start this B wave. In the end though, there is a big C waiting for its turn.