Crude

Crude finished down in a pretty lackluster session. Range was a smallish $1.51, while volume expanded from yesterday, but still below average.

Not much has change with this market. My view is that we are still in the process of tracing sub-minuette iv of v of minuette (c) of minute [c].

Price action was choppy with overlap, confirming that we are still correcting the move down.

I am hoping that we can have a normal last wave down. There is always the chance that we truncate, which is fine, as long as is it easily recognizable.

Not much to add tonight folks. Just be patient and let structure unfold.

ES

The equity markets ended lower after making their highs in the morning. Range was a smallish 12.50 handles on expanding downside volume.

My view is that we finished a minuette wave (i) of (v) of minute [v] at the 1065.75 H. We are currently tracing wave (ii).

I have ratcheted down my degrees by one, as I think this makes sense, based on the structure.

It appears that (ii) is taking the form of a double zigzag. I would like to see a "deepish" type retracement for (ii), and a double zigzag suggests that we will.

Equality = 1048.50. The 70.7% retracement = 1044.50. Somewhere in that vicinity would be perfect.

Price action off the 1065.75 H appears corrective, as it should. You could make an argument for a leading diagonal, however, I think it counts best as a 3.

If somehow the alternate count were in play, then this would suggest that we were looking at minuette degree (iii) down. I don't believe it would start with a leading diagonal.

Perhaps it is just a a wave of (ii). This suggests that we would have to have at least another 5 wave structure up of sub-minuette degree to finish (ii), but without exceeding the the 1075.75 H.

It's possible, however, it is my alternate count. As stated above, I believe we completed (i).

We are due a KoolsTools cycle low tomorrow, which fits perfectly with structure.

I plan on putting on a long line tomorrow via calls. More than likely they will be October's. Should I be completely wrong, it shouldn't take long before I know, as we would be entering a 3rd wave down.

Stop will be the 1035.75 L, as this is the line in the sand for my interpretation of structure.

Please do your own due diligence before placing any wagers.

Crude

Crude followed the equity markets higher. Range was $2.13 on declining volume.

Not a whole lot changed with today's action. It appears that wave iv is still in process.

As mentioned in last update, it is unclear exactly where iii completed. I have it labeled at the 65.60 L. It is possible the 65.05 L contained it.

Regardless, It does appear that it is finished. After iv completes we should see v down.

Retracement levels are are on the chart.

This is a very nice Bullish Crab that took place today.

Even though it only managed to get to 1st target, that was still over $.60 of potential profit.

Notice the nice RSI divergence at completion of pattern.

Big nice swings in today's trade. I hope some of you were able to take advantage of them.

ES

As expected, ES had impulsive upside price action today. Range was a nice 25.25 handles, however, volume was meager.

I really have doubts about the minuette degree starting waves I have labeled on chart. I show an alternate count of sub-minuette degree.

Remember, 5 minuette degree waves up will finish minute [v] and thus, minor C. Minute [i] was 63 handles, while minute [iii] came in at 89.25 handles.

It's certainly possible that the minuette degree's are correct, but unless (v) explodes, then minute [v] will be very small in comparison to the rest of the structure.

Equality = 1098.75. The minimum objective of 61.8% of [i] - [iii] = 1100.25.

Thus far, we have beautiful fib relationships working with structure.

Price was temporarily stopped at the 61.8% retracement of the corrective, as well as the 261.8% projection of wave (i) (or i).

This is a good "marker" for us, as 3rd waves have a common relationship with the 261.8% ratio.

We have retraced to the 23.6% of wave (i), which again is a nice "marker", as 4th waves generally retrace 23.6% - 38.2%.

It appears that the daily 20 sma has held so far. The pattern discussed in the weekend update, suggests that price should see new highs.

We should see higher price once this wave (iv) (or iv) completes.

Weekend Update - ES

ES
Not a good week for the equity markets in general. The ES closed down 34.75 handles off its Wednesday high.

My current interpretation has structure finishing minute [iv] of minor C of intermediate (Y) at the 1036.25 L Friday.

In order for this view to remain valid, price can not enter the territory of [i], which sits at the 1034.25 level. Should that occur, odds favor that minor C completed up at the 1075.75 H, as per the alternate at bottom of chart.

The only remaining bullish way at looking at structure would assume that C was tracing an ending diagonal. This would actually require [iv] to work its way into wave [i] territory. Although a possibility, I don't think it is very realistic.

Diagonals form 3's - not 5's (p. 36-37, Elliott Wave Principle). It is clear to me that minute [i] traced a 5 wave structure.

It appears that we have a little 5 waves up off the 1036.25 L. I have labeled this as a minuette (i) and (ii). 5 minuette waves up will finish minor C, thus completing intermediate (Y).

Price does not have to reach new highs to finish its upside structure. It's very possible that [v] could truncate.

Targets for (iii) are equality with (i) at 1047.75, as well as, the 161.8% projection of (i) at 1053.

This is a weekly look at things. Notice that MACD has a confirmed cross-over. Also notice the big negative divergence of the histogram.

I suspect that RSI will have a reaction at the trend line. I'm still looking for RSI to show a negative divergence before this bear rally completes. The breaking of the channel will let us know that the downtrend has resumed.

Although not shown, we have reached the monthly 20 sma (and ema) - and were rejected. This has setup a big sell pattern, as ADX is also over 30. I don't trade this pattern, but I do pay attention to it.

It should be noted, however, that the daily has setup a buy signal based on the same.

The daily projection down = 1022. We did close under the 161.8% projection, suggesting that we should see the 261.8%.

We had a KoolsTools cycle peak that was scheduled for Tuesday. We did go on to make a higher high, but not on a close basis. The next decent cycle I see is a cycle low setup for Wednesday. This comes from the two peaks up top.

Bottom line - I'm looking for structure to trace out one more impulse. It appears that we have a 5 wave move off of Friday's low. At minimum, we should see another 5 waves up.