ES

ES had its 7th positive gain day out of the last 8 sessions. Volume was well above average and range was 13.75 handles.

Here is the 15m pit session chart again. I have made a couple of minor changes.

I stated last night that this leg may complete a minuette degree wave. That is certainly possible, but I believe the odds are low of that scenario. It would just be to big of a wave for that degree imo.

The count I have labeled on the chart, may in fact, be to small as well. I have a couple of alternates at the bottom.

The problem that I'm having is that if the 1038.75 H completed a minute [i] wave, then we basically have no room for a [iv]th corrective. Wave 4's can not enter the price territory of wave 1's.

It is clear to me that we are very close to ending this leg from the 986.50 L. So, you can see the dilemma. Perhaps the bottom count is correct and this pig is almost done with the bear rally? It's possible, however, that's not my preferred count.

We need to pay attention to this move off the 1029.50 L, which I have labeled as a sub-minuette iv. This could actually be playing out as an ending diagonal. You can make a case that my micro [1] is a 3 instead of a 5, which is how I'm currently counting it.

I have placed the boundary lines on the chart - should this play out.

The key will be that [4] needs to close in the price territory of [1], and [5] will need to be shorter than [3].

I had to leave early from the market today or I would have been selling this pig at the upper pink boundary line. This looks very wolfe wavy to me. Target will be the bottom pink boundary line.

My guess is that this does not play out as I have shown. Structure suggests that we have a little more upside price action needed.

I see that the bigs unloaded in the last 30 minutes.

I also see that the 2 bar daily price projection (KoolsTools) was basically met today at 1052.50. I had several fib ratios that fell on that number as well.

I'm not sure the Bradley turn date did much - at least yet.

Crude

Crude corrected all day with choppy and slow action. Range was a very smallish $1.49 on below average volume.

Look at this mess. I'm not even going to bother trying to figure out the waves.

I think it's safe to say that whatever went on today was corrective.

I kept trying to find a triangle out of today's action, but you can only have one complex wave. I count 74, or is it 126.

We may very well end up with a triangle, but it will be part of a combination if there is one.

I believe that the 68.02 L finished either an a or i of sub-minuette degree. We are likely tracing b or ii now. And yes, 2 waves can contain a triangle if part of a combination.

There is also the chance this could be a [4]th wave. Regardless, they all three call for lower price.

Keep in mind, yesterday was suppose to be a KoolsTools cycle low. Not sure how that can happen, but I guess anythings possible.

Again, the 67.05 L is critical support. If that gives, I think 65 is a shoe-in, and possibly 63ish.

ES

The equity markets turned a potential bad day into a decent positive day. Volume was a touch below average, while range was 19.75.

Taking out the 1043.75 H basically blew up the double zigzag, at least how I was counting it.

This is another way of looking at this move off of the 986.75 L. This is a 15 minute pit session chart. Based on this interpretation, we are currently tracing v of sub-minuette degree.

What will it complete? Who knows. I guess a minuette (i) of (v) of [iii]. You could also ratchet up the degrees by one and be finishing minute [iii]. Or possibly something entirely different.

It's just not clear exactly where we are in the structure. Sure looks like a big ABC to me off the 971 L - no?

The Bull Bat worked like a charm. I took profit at the 1st and 2nd targets.

Don't forget that we have a Bradley date tomorrow.

Weekend Update - ES

ES
The equity markets enjoyed nice upside gains this week with no major surprises.

My count remains that minor A finished at the 1038.75 H. We are in the process of tracing out an expanded flat for B. C down will follow.

As I stated previously, this is likely NOT what the waves are forming. However, you can't rule it out.

I am bothered by the internals here. I'm not sure we can continue higher before trying to relieve some of the overboughtness and bullishness. Perhaps I'm wrong.

Anyway, it appears that we may have completed, what I have labeled as, a double zigzag up for minute [b]. Whatever the structure off the 986.50 L - it seems complete.

We either are tracing a corrective here, or setup some 1's and 2's. Unfortunately, it appears that it is just a corrective. If this is indeed a minute [c], then we should be impulsing down.

We have the potential here for a nice Bullish Bat, near perfect actually.

I'm not sure that it works out, but it is setup. First target is 1033.50, which is about 6 handles higher. Second target = 1040.75. I thought it was worth a shot, so I'm long at 1027.25. My stop is 1022.75.

Hope to wake up in the morning with a nice profit to start the day.


Here is another potential pattern that I have been watching lately. Is this a wolfe wave in the making?

Who knows - but I can assure you that if/when we reach the upper boundary line and the pattern is still intact - VO will put on a short-line.

See the crude update for a very nice wolfe wave that played out intraday Friday.

The next good KoolsTools cycle I see is a peak that is scheduled to come in on September 20. We also have a Bradley date on the 15th. There is some astro dates this month as well.

I noticed that the 1 bar daily terminal projection of 1042.75 was hit on Friday.

Figure 1-34 is what I'm proposing that structure may be tracing.

Weekend Update - Crude

CRUDE
The crude market had a vicious reversal on Friday - losing almost 4%.

So, where does that leave us in terms of structure? It's starting to get tricky in this mess. Means that more than likely this minor B wave (or [iv]) is turning a triangle or complex combination.

I'm not certain how to count the move up from the 67.05 L. I can get a 5 out of it, however, it looks like it is best counted as a 3. We should know within the next few days what exactly it is.

If price takes out the low then we know it is a 3. If it's a 5, that low will hold and we should, at minimum, see another 5 waves up of sub-minuette degree.

I have a question mark next to the minuette (c) because it just wouldn't make sense for structure to complete there. A failure (c) of the second half of a double zigzag? It just doesn't look right.

It's either not complete or my assessment of the total structure forming is wrong - or both.

Here is what price action on Friday looked like on the squiggle level.

I show this as an ABC corrective because I don't believe you can get a 5 down to the 71.62 L. It would appear that if my assessment is correct, we are tracing an expanded flat for b.

It could also be forming a running triangle. If this is the case, it should be tracing the [C] leg currently.

Whether this is a corrective or impulse, the eventual resolution should be to the downside.

Notice the monster RSI divergence.

This is a trade setup from Friday's price action.

This is a wolfe wave for you folks that are familiar with it. This is not an EWT pattern.

Entry for this pattern is a touch of the boundary line at point 5. Notice that C (or Y) just happened to tick equality for you counters. The first touch would been at 69.76.

Target is the lower boundary line, which is made by connecting the top of 1 with the bottom of 4. Expect price to get there in a hurry, as happened Friday.

Price eventually supported at the 261.80% projection of A at 68.85.

My entry was WAY late at 69.45. I covered at 68.94. Dandy of a setup and trade.

Notice the big divergence up at point 5. Also, notice that price supported at the 261.80% projection of [A], which was also the weekly Demark PP on the way down to start the pattern.

Bottom line - crude is getting messy and that probably means a likely triangle. I expect downside resolution near-term, however, I don't expect price to take out the 61.11 L. It targets 65, which sounds reasonable.

Edit: I failed to mention that Monday is supposed to be a cycle low (KoolsTools). This comes from the 8/7 and 8/25 highs.