Weekend Update - Crude

CRUDE
The crude market had a vicious reversal on Friday - losing almost 4%.

So, where does that leave us in terms of structure? It's starting to get tricky in this mess. Means that more than likely this minor B wave (or [iv]) is turning a triangle or complex combination.

I'm not certain how to count the move up from the 67.05 L. I can get a 5 out of it, however, it looks like it is best counted as a 3. We should know within the next few days what exactly it is.

If price takes out the low then we know it is a 3. If it's a 5, that low will hold and we should, at minimum, see another 5 waves up of sub-minuette degree.

I have a question mark next to the minuette (c) because it just wouldn't make sense for structure to complete there. A failure (c) of the second half of a double zigzag? It just doesn't look right.

It's either not complete or my assessment of the total structure forming is wrong - or both.

Here is what price action on Friday looked like on the squiggle level.

I show this as an ABC corrective because I don't believe you can get a 5 down to the 71.62 L. It would appear that if my assessment is correct, we are tracing an expanded flat for b.

It could also be forming a running triangle. If this is the case, it should be tracing the [C] leg currently.

Whether this is a corrective or impulse, the eventual resolution should be to the downside.

Notice the monster RSI divergence.

This is a trade setup from Friday's price action.

This is a wolfe wave for you folks that are familiar with it. This is not an EWT pattern.

Entry for this pattern is a touch of the boundary line at point 5. Notice that C (or Y) just happened to tick equality for you counters. The first touch would been at 69.76.

Target is the lower boundary line, which is made by connecting the top of 1 with the bottom of 4. Expect price to get there in a hurry, as happened Friday.

Price eventually supported at the 261.80% projection of A at 68.85.

My entry was WAY late at 69.45. I covered at 68.94. Dandy of a setup and trade.

Notice the big divergence up at point 5. Also, notice that price supported at the 261.80% projection of [A], which was also the weekly Demark PP on the way down to start the pattern.

Bottom line - crude is getting messy and that probably means a likely triangle. I expect downside resolution near-term, however, I don't expect price to take out the 61.11 L. It targets 65, which sounds reasonable.

Edit: I failed to mention that Monday is supposed to be a cycle low (KoolsTools). This comes from the 8/7 and 8/25 highs.