ES

Another day of bear rally highs that couldn't hold. We had decent range at 19.75 handles and actually decent volume as well.

I show a i, ii with today's price action, but have a very low confidence in it. Just doesn't look right to me. Feels like we should be further along in the count than what I have it.

I sorta like my alternate with a triangle tracing. What I don't like is the break of the channel. I'm also not thrilled with the divergences that are showing.

I would like to be bullish for higher price due to where I have us in the count, but something is bothering me about structure and internals here.

The daily candles are looking like they did back in mid June. Those are not bullish candles folks. We had about a weeks worth of 'em back then. A big downside break followed.

I'm not suggesting that is what is going to happen, though it certainly could.

We could very well still be in minor B tracing an expanded flat, but I don't think so. I'm more apt to think that this is [v] of A, as crazy as that sounds.

Not real sure exactly what's going on - I just know I don't like it.

Bottom line - price should continue higher if I'm any where close to being right about structure, however, I think something is wrong here. Call it a gut feel.

Crude

Crude was taken behind the woodshed today. Range was $3.85 with greater than average volume.

The downside breakout was expected as sub-minuette b turned complex, but looks to have completed at the 74.96 H.

It appears that c down is in full force. I believe that micro [1], [2], and [3] have completed. [4] appears to still be tracing, and may in fact be turning a triangle. It's to early to make that call.

If my assessment of structure is correct, [5] should finish up sometime tomorrow. This will finish c, thus completing minuette (b).

There is always the chance that when this expanded flat finishes, (b) will take on a complex structure if either price and/or time requires it.

Regardless of when (b) completes, we should see another leg higher to ultimately finish minute [b].

Targets for c should include the 161.8% extension of a at 70.62 and the 2:1 at 69.75. [5] = the 261.8% projection of [1] at 69.83. The 61.8% of [1] - [3] sits at 69.80.

We came within $.01 of the 1.618 daily projection (KoolsTools) of 74.97. If price breaks this level, it generally signals that it wants to go to the 2.618. When price has trouble at the 161.8, it is warning you that it may not want the upper projection.

My alternate is at the bottom.

Bottom line - I expect price to finish up minuette (b) in short order.

Crude

Crude finished higher, however, she couldn't close above Friday's high. Range was only $1.24 (about 25 ES handles) on fairly light volume.

I believe that crude is tracing out an expanded flat here for its minuette (b) wave. If this assessment is correct, price should go back to the low of sub-minuette a.

If you look at the daily, we are bumping up against the upper channel line of this entire minor B structure.

We also had monster RSI divergence.

If price takes out the 74.81 H, then something else is more than likely going on.

Since this is a c leg, we should see a 5 wave impulse down. I'm not sure we can say that so far.

ES

ES made new bear rally highs today before giving it all back. Range was 13.75 points on contracting volume from Friday's OEX. The daily put in a bearish shooting star candle.

I show four different counts on chart. My preferred (sorta) is that the 1032.50 H completed minuette (1) of minute [iii]. I have tried to force an ending diagonal in at the 1035 H, but it just isn't there folks.

This means that this is another expanding flat, which by the way is the most common, for (ii). Notice the 138.2% fib relationship again.

The other counts are at the bottom. It is possible that minute [iii] completed. If that is the correct interpretation, I would expect [v] to extend, or at least rival [iii]'s distance at minimum.

It is also possible that we completed [b] of minor B. Yes folks, I hate to say it, but we could be tracing a big expanded flat for B. If correct, price will travel back down to the end of [a] around 976 before starting it's minor C leg higher.

The risk/reward ratio at this point in the game clearly doesn't favor the bulltards. I moved the girls 529 money out of equities today. I may likely miss some additional upside, but why try to squeeze out the last few drops.

Lets see how price action treats us tomorrow.

I hope those 100 lotter's that tried to keep the market propped up there were GS and JPM trading desks :)

Weekend Update ES

ES
It appears that we are well into our minor C leg, although, it's still possible that this could be part of a complex structure for B. I'm satisfied that minor B completed at the 976.75 L.

I have minute [i] finishing at the 1003.75 H (27 handles), which was followed by an expanding flat for [ii]. If this is correct, then the flat would be a "running flat" (p. 48-49, figure 1-39 Elliott Wave Principle). That is simply an expanded flat where price doesn't make it back to the bottom of A.

That is a very rare pattern, so I'm wondering if it is indeed correct. Perhaps not, but I don't know how you can get a 5 out of the move off the 994.25 L.

It appears that we are close to finishing another 5 wave impulse, if not already completed. I have this as a sub-minuette degree, which would complete a minuette (i).

5 minuette degree waves should complete [iii]. We will then have a corrective [iv], which is followed by the [v]th. Voila! minor C will be complete. Then things get interesting.

My suggestion is not to get caught up in the smaller degree subdivision of waves. If your new to EWT, or want to quit pulling your hair out, just look for the bigger degree structures.

Targets for the upside? C = A at 1126.25. C = 61.8% of A at 1068.75, which would be the minimum expected target, though it can certainly fall short.

The 50% retracement from the 07 high sits at 1126.75 (nice confluence with the 1:1), while the 61.8% is at 1237.

The monthly 20 sma is around 1078. We have not seen the average since early 08. I suspect it will provide resistance, if only temporarily.

Don't forget the 2 bar daily projection (KoolsTools) at 1036.50. This is off the 975.50 low. I also have a couple of numbers around 1038.

There is also a very important geometric line that sits directly above in what looks to be the low to mid 1040's. This is the 2.236, or the hypotenuse of a triangle for you geometric freaks.

I have the retracement fibs on the chart if (i) of [iii] has completed. Again, I would not expect a very deep (ii), but you never know.

Friday was supposed to be a cycle peak day (KoolsTools) from the 8/12 and 8/17 lows. RSI is also showing very good negative divergence up here. There are several things pointing to a retracement here. Keep that in mind.

Here is Friday's price action. For such a big move, almost 21 handles, the 100 lotter's finished basically level.

Seems kinda strange to me.

I realize that about 1/2 that move occurred in globex, but you would think there would be greater accumulation on their part.

Over the last couple hours they did have a net accumulation, while the smallies clearly were unloading.

I have received numerous enquiries about this indicator. This is the intellectual property of my friend, buddy, pal PT Emini over at MyPivots.com. He allows me to use it under the condition that I don't give it away. I respect and honor that agreement.

Here is the daily look at cash.

If there were no labels on this minor A leg, and you were trying to find wave [iv]...where would you place it? Yeah, me too.

I'm not even going to open that can of worms (yet).

Bottom line - looking for a pull back very soon. It doesn't have to retrace in points, it can do it with time. After which, I expect higher price.