Monday, August 24, 2009

ES

ES made new bear rally highs today before giving it all back. Range was 13.75 points on contracting volume from Friday's OEX. The daily put in a bearish shooting star candle.

I show four different counts on chart. My preferred (sorta) is that the 1032.50 H completed minuette (1) of minute [iii]. I have tried to force an ending diagonal in at the 1035 H, but it just isn't there folks.

This means that this is another expanding flat, which by the way is the most common, for (ii). Notice the 138.2% fib relationship again.

The other counts are at the bottom. It is possible that minute [iii] completed. If that is the correct interpretation, I would expect [v] to extend, or at least rival [iii]'s distance at minimum.

It is also possible that we completed [b] of minor B. Yes folks, I hate to say it, but we could be tracing a big expanded flat for B. If correct, price will travel back down to the end of [a] around 976 before starting it's minor C leg higher.

The risk/reward ratio at this point in the game clearly doesn't favor the bulltards. I moved the girls 529 money out of equities today. I may likely miss some additional upside, but why try to squeeze out the last few drops.

Lets see how price action treats us tomorrow.

I hope those 100 lotter's that tried to keep the market propped up there were GS and JPM trading desks :)

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