Weekend Update - Grains

CORN
The corn market actually had a nice upside week.

It is unclear whether the 302 L finished minor 3. It is certainly possible, however, it is also possible that it was a minute degree low registered.

If so, then price may be setting up another [i] - [ii], as I have labeled on the chart. A very bearish scenario if correct.

There is key resistance at 334, the minor 2 high. Critical resistance resides at the intermediate (2) high at 339.75. Should price trade through that level, we would need to reassess the count.

I am concerned that RSI has a noticeable positive divergence. Perhaps it is just re-setting for the push down. Something to definitely pay attention to nevertheless.

We do have the potential for a cycle peak (KoolsTools) on Monday. This comes from the 7/22 and 8/17 lows. We did have a nice minor cycle low that came in on schedule on Tuesday. I had missed that in my analysis last week.

Bottom line - I'm still bearish this market. At this point, structure does not even remotely suggest that a bottom is in place. As I have mentioned numerous times, I look for price to find its way down to the 270's, and more likely lower.

All upside moves should be considered counter-trend until proven otherwise imo.

All prices basis continuous contract.

SOYBEANS
The bean market started the week out on a good note, however, it ended on a sour one.

To reiterate from week, it appears that the 1040 H completed primary [A] and we have started tracing [B] down. This should be followed by the final [C] leg of a double zigzag. This assumes my assessment of structure is correct.

Price supported on the base channel and 50% retracement level of [A]. When drilling down to smaller time frame, it appears that we should see lower price to finish [B], as it has taken the form of a zigzag.

There is a nice level of confluence lining up around 858.50. We have the (4)th of lesser, the 61.8% retracement of [A], and the channel all in that area.

Upon the completion of [B], upside targets are [Y] = [W] at 1263.75 and 1066.125, where [Y] = 61.8% of [W].

We have the potential for a cycle low (KoolsTools) on either Wednesday or Thursday. It is unclear if we should use 8/12 or 8/13 for the cycle, as they both had the same high. Perhaps this will give us the completion of [B].

All prices basis continuous contract.

WHEAT
The wheat market dropped hard on Tuesday before re-gaining some footing on Friday.

We shot through the minimum downside objective of primary [5] (465.75) with the move Tuesday. Price registered a low of 451, which just happened to be the 161.8% projection of minor 1.

It appears that minor 3 completed at that projection. If this is the case, then we should see price trace out a 4 before heading lower again.

It is also possible, much like corn, that price finished a minute degree low and is setting up a [i] - [ii] .

RSI is also divergent in this market. This bears watching.

The next decent potential cycle (KoolsTools) I see is a low set for Friday. This comes from the 8/3 and 8/25 highs.

The nearest intermediate degree target is (3) = (1) at 417.50.

Bottom line - I'm still bearish this market. It won't go down in a straight line, but I suspect we see price under 400 in the not to distant future.

There is a Supercycle degree triangle apex in the 320 area. I wouldn't rule that out either.

All prices basis continuous contract.