ES

TIMBER! Welcome to September. ES led the equity markets to the downside today. Range was a manly 32.50 handles. Volume was huge, registering its biggest total since March.

The question is not "have we topped," but rather "is this THE top."

This is a 4 hour chart. We have decisively broken the channel from the 865.25 L. The structure from that low, which I believe is a minor degree ABC corrective of an intermediate degree (Y) leg, has finished imo.

I'm not willing to say the bear rally off the March lows is done, at this point. I would need confirmation of a channel break that is drawn off the same March low. This would tell me that the structure from March 6 has completed.

This channel looks like it will come into play around the mid August lows, or where minor B finished.

Isn't it just like them to throw in a bunch of non-counting BS waves at such an important juncture.

I have to tell you folks, I have some minuette degree waves on the chart that I simply had to just put on there. In all honesty, I can't get to the 1013.25 L or the 1010.75 L without breaking and bending impulse rules.

This is a concern for me. Perhaps it's part some leading diagonal or something where further price action is needed to see the complete picture. If this were a corrective, it would actually count really well. Pit session has much cleaner wave structure.

Price action off the 1027.75 H definitely looks impulsive. Not positive about the degree, I may need to adjust that up a notch. It does appear that we are nearly finished with this little leg.

Notice we have a nice positive RSI divergence in place. We also met the daily 1 bar projection off the 1038.75 H at 995. In fact, we closed below the 2 bar daily 161.8%, which suggests that we should find our way down to the projection at 972.

This pig was sold hard today. Both sides puked 'em up. I also believe we had a 90% down day.

Did you notice the VIX explosion? Closed up over +12% while breaking out to the upside of its channel.

First level price needs to break on the downside is 990. This is the wave [i] of C H. This will eliminate some alternatives.

Next will be the 975.50 L, which is where B completed. I suspect this level will be defended.

If your bearish, you don't want price taking out the 1027.75 H, until minute [i] of 1 has finished.

There is just nothing positive that happened in the market today if your a bull. I'm sure Cramer was on screaming that you got to "back the truck up"..."they gave you a gift today"..."it's a new bull market" ect. ect. Stop watching that clown - start watching structure.

Bottom line - I'm bearish. We should see some type of bounce soon. This will setup an opportunity to add to your short-line.

I'm not sure the "Great Bear" is back. We should know fairly soon though.