Weekend Update #2

CRUDE The crude market spent the majority of the week consolidating.

Nothing has changed in structure to alter my current interpretation. My view remains that crude is tracing out a minute [c] leg to finish off minor B.

I'm still assuming that price reaches the daily projection (KoolsTools) around 75. This should be a significant resistance area, as the 127.2% projection of [a] and the June highs are right there as well.

Here is how the subwaves are looking. It appeared that we were going to finally move on out of this minuette (iv) wave on Friday. Unfortunately, Jim Kane threw his 88.6% in the way.

There is the possibility that (v) could be an ending diagonal, as shown by my alternate count. Remember, ED's are a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. It appears that we completed what could be the first 4 legs.

Notice also that wave iii is shorter than i and the converging trend lines. We would need another 3 wave leg up that is less than $2.66 to satisfy this pattern.

I will be paying close attention to this when trade opens Sunday night.

DOLLAR INDEX The dollar put in new swing lows Wednesday and then abruptly exploded higher to finish the week.

We may have put in an important bottom this past week. The downside structure looks complete. It also appears that the move off the 77.52 L is impulsing. Notice the channel break as well (I think that first fake break was warning sign).

Our first area of resistance should be the 4th of lesser high at 79.81. If we take out the 81.97 H, then I think that will more than likely lock in the bottom.

If price trades below the 77.52 L we know (C) is not complete.

GOLD The gold market turned down in the latter part of the week, perhaps due to the dollar strength.

It appears that minute [ii] has completed. Notice the 78.6% projection of (a) is where price turned. This is the top of what Michael Jardine refers to as "the death zone."

If I'm correct in my overall assessment of gold, then we should start to see some acceleration to the downside. This appears to fit with the dollar structure.

Our first objective would be to take out the 930 level. Again, our line in the sand is the 996.90 H. If price were to trade through that level then the alternate count comes into play.

30 YR BOND The bond complex spent the week losing ground.

I have made some minor changes to the count. It appears that intermediate (4) has completed, though not a certainty. If completed, then we should be starting down in a minor set of waves that would finish (5).

There is also the possibility that (4) will turn a triangle.

Notice how minor 2 was stopped in its tracks at the channel line.