Weekend Update #2

Crude Everything was going to plan following Thursday's action. Then things had to get tough...what's new.

There are basically three scenarios at play here:

1.) A finished on the 21st at the 66.68 H. What has ensued is a big expanded flat with B completing on Friday's 68.18 H.

2.) A extended and completed at Friday's 68.18 H.

3.) A finished on the 21st at the 66.68 H. An ABC finished on the 22nd at the 63.76 L. We are currently in C.

There are issues and challenges with each count. I still favor #1 and that is my preferred current count, but in no way am I so inflexible that I wouldn't ditch it if structure tells me to.

In order to maintain this count, price needs to immediately turn down when trade opens Sunday night. B has reached the 150% extension of A. This is about the maximum it can go for an expanded flat.

#2 is my alternate with #3 my backup. I have shown #3 on the daily chart.

It is worth noting that price traded into the territory of the 6/23 swing low (A on daily). This validates that we are in a corrective, not an impulse down.

Gold GC had a very good week. I'm maintaining my intermediate bearish count. The line in the sand remains 992.10. Should price trade above that, I will change to my bullish alternate count.

On a bigger picture, Gold appears to be waiting for an explosion higher, which I believe will happen. Currently, structure is telling me that it's not quite finished correcting in price and time.

Dollar Index The Dollar appears to be very close to completing its (C) leg. This will also complete a 2 or B.

Regardless of which it ultimately turns out to be, the Dollar is getting ready to start a move higher. This of course, assumes I have interpreted the structure correctly.

Targets higher? Start with the 92.212 H that was made 11/19/08.


30 YR Bonds As stated previously, I believe the 30 YR has completed A down and is in the process of tracing out its B wave. I currently have 2 being played out (minor change from last week).

There is still a possibility that (C) of A has not completed. If that is the case, then it would currently be in 5 down.

Bottom line is that the 30 YR should see some upside pressure soon.