ES

This is what I'm looking at currently. This structure appears to be an ending diagonal for the minute [v].

The 78.6% projection would be a perfect spot for completion. This would entail a move over the boundary line, which is known as "throw-over", as pointed out on p. 38 in Elliott Wave Principle.

"A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing back to the level where it began and typically much further.", p. 38 Elliott Wave Principle

If price prints 1015.75 then this pattern is not valid, as this would make wave (iii) the shortest.

Here is what the Ensign Map is forecasting. It has been spot on so far today.

That should change if this diagonal finishes tracing.

Crude

Crude continues to power higher, closing up another couple of bucks.

It appears that something finished at 72.20. I show sub-minuette iii, however, it very well could be minuette (iii). Since this is more than likely a 4th, regardless of degree, be on the lookout for a triangle.

72.20 was the 261.8% projection of i . A perfect fib relationship for iii to complete. 72.16 was the 141.4% projection of (i) . I have placed the retracement ratio's on the chart.

When this retracement completes either tonight or tomorrow, I will be expecting higher prices still. Minute [a] = [c] at 72.40. Other nearby targets are the 88.6% retracement from the high at 72.91, and the 161.8% projection of (1) sits at 73.16.

Once this degree retracement takes place we should be able to draw a new channel.

ES

ES finished higher for the 13th out of the last 16 sessions and closing over 1,000. Range was 19.25 points, while volume finished lower for the second consecutive day with a higher price close. They are handing the torch off to someone - hope it's not you.

What a mess of confusing waves. There are several possible counts and all have issues. We either completed minor A at the 994 H, or we are working on it now.

Who knows. I still favor the completed A scenario for now, which would mean we are tracing out an expanded flat. I have previously discussed that an expanded flat would make a whole lot of sense to me.

If correct, minuette (a) finished at the 978.25 L. (b) looks to be completing very soon, in what might be an ending diagonal. Whether its an ending or leading, ES is definitely wedging (again).

As mentioned above, the waves are a wreck and there are lots of other options. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Surprisingly, I have the 100 lotter's finishing barely above break-even. Seems strange on a day where the market was up 16.25 handles...or does it!?

Chart courtesy of our friend Jim Kane at www.kanetrading.com.

TNX is his Chart of the Month. He also just posted his monthly commentary.

For those of you who are not aware of Jim and the important work he has done, I highly encourage you to check out his website. I use the all important 88.6% ratio because Jim derived and quantified it.

While your over there, check out his article titled "The Critical Elements of a Trade".

Soybean addendum

This is a look at the subwaves. I believe that beans completed a running triangle (p. 49-50, Figure 1-43, Elliott Wave Principle).

This is a beautiful structure with nice fib relationships. Notice the gap over minor A, in what's known as "the point of recognition." This happens in the 3rd of a 3rd wave, in this case (iii) of [iii].

Wave [i] equality is at 10590. It would be nice to complete C at that level.

Remember, in order to maintain a bearish count, price needs to finish this counter-trend rally fairly soon.

This is the September contract. The daily chart posted below is of the continuous. There are slight differences in price.

For you beginners, this is a great learning chart.