ES

The market started its thrust out of the three day consolidation (hallelujah!) late yesterday and continued through globex and the early part of the session.

We made the high of the day within the first hour. From there we basically grinded our way down first, then up, before they puked 'em up the last 45 minutes.

Range was 20.50 handles with higher than average volume.

It appears that we have finally finished minor A. If A is indeed done, it measured 128.75 handles. At this point, we have begun impulsing down in B and appear close to finishing (iii) of minute [a]. It should be noted, we have only had a zigzag down at this stage. There is still the possibility that this is wave (iv) with (v) up to complete A.

It's way to early in the structure to determine which of the three forms it will take. As stated previously, it will be either a triangle, flat or zigzag. My preference is a nice power zigzag. A flat, however, would screw the most people. It would give doubt to the shorts of the legitimacy of the downside, while allowing the dippers to add to their longs. A witch those flats can be - especially the expanded ones.

If the up structure completed (coming so close to my 995!), then we will need to start looking at our retracement levels from the 865.25 L. The first up will be the 23.6% at 963.50. The 38.2% comes in at 44.50, while the 50% sits at 29.75.

I suspect the three day grindathon we had for wave [iv] (4th of lesser degree) will not be easily taken. And we still need to break the channel line.

The minimum downside objective for a triangle would be the 38.2%. A zigzag should get to the 50%, while a flat should minimally reach the 70.7% at 903. Don't forget we STILL have intraday gaps that go all the way down to 910.50.

Using KoolsTools Time Cycles, we should see a low based on the daily 4 trading days from today, or next Wednesday. This is not to imply that this B wave should complete by then. Only that Wednesday should contain a daily low - not "the" low.

Notice the red box. That's why I refer to them as "big" money and not "smart" money. We know who was buying the drinks tonight.

One last thing. I'm in the process of standardizing my nomenclature and color schemes for the labeling. The problem I have is that I use three different backgrounds and I have had a hard time with colors that fit for all three.

That should be done by this weekend. I will post something in regards to this.

Crude

Crude was taken behind the woodshed today, losing close to 6%. Range was a hefty $4.31, while volume was the heaviest since 5/7/09.

It appears that C still has more room on the downside. My interpretation of structure is that iii of v should be complete, or fairly close. That would mean that we are tracing out iv with v to follow, thus completing (3).

As always, degree's and labels are subject to change.

There is a possibility that the structure that finished at the 68.99 H was B. I do not believe that is the case.

One area to watch is 62.42. This is the one bar daily projection from the 68.99 H. Another area worth watching is 61.37, this is the 261.8% projection from wave (1). Retracements from the 59.30 L and 68.99 H are shown in red.

ES

ES closed negative for a second straight day (just barely). Range was 12 points and volume was slightly under yesterday's total. Basically, more of the same today - slow grinding consolidation.

Is structure still tracing a triangle? More than likely no, by definition, however, I suspect the end result will be similar. If not a triangle, then probably a combination of some type (double or triple three). The last structure may very well turn out to be a triangle.

It really doesn't matter what the final structure is comprised of. We should resolve this mess to the upside to complete A. It appears that we have not corrected enough in time. When that time element has been satisfied we should start impulsing upward.

This correction has been the biggest, in terms of both price and time, since the 865.25 L. I really believe that this has to be our minor wave 4 (white). This would mean that minor 3 (white) ended at the 976.50 H.

Generally, when wave 3 extends the 5th tends towards equality with wave 1. 1 was 19 handles, so 19 handles from the end of 4 should be an area of "heads up". This is by no means a certainty.

The smallies damn well knew GS would ramp it at the end of day, just like they do everyday.

ES

A rare negative close for the market today. We had a 15.50 handle range, while volume increased from the two previous sessions.

It appears that we are still in process of tracing out a triangle, although, slightly different than what I had labeled yesterday. Wave C looks to have morphed into a more complex structure(WXY).

This is not at all surprising, as we generally see one of the subwaves more complex than the other's. Triangles are a fight between bull and bears and reflect a balance of forces. That's why they go sideways.

If this assessment of structure is correct, we should see a thrust upward on E's completion. It has a 21.50 handle measurement from high to low. This would target out around 995 (there's that number again!) using the apex. We will have to see where E ends to get an exact target.

There is also the possibility that this is not a triangle at all. One thing is certain, we have traced out a bunch 3's. If price trades below C at 966, then the triangle would be invalidated.

Notice the channel line. This comes from a 1-3 line starting at the end of wave 2. Pretty random how price supported there - ya think?


Not much to glean from this, outside of the fact, the smalls were almost -40k this morning before finishing around -12.5k.

There was a beautiful buy setup off of the confluence of Value Low and S1 during the retest. Hope some of you got a piece of that.

ES

I'm not sure if I'm just trying to force a triangle in this structure or what.

C leg's can be complex..."most subwaves in a triangle are zigzags, but sometimes one of the subwaves (usually C) is more complex than the others and can take the shape of a multiple zigzag", p. 49 Elliott Wave Principle.

We did have a nice Bull Butterfly that setup. Currently it has met its first target at 71.50.