Crude

Crude may have finished A up. We have broken the channel after completing 5 waves up. If correct, we should see B kick into gear, which would mean downside pressure.

Sorta has a H/S look - doesn't it? The 38.2% from the lows comes in at 63.87 and the 50% is at 63. I have to maintain a negative bias until B completes.

The important thing that happened was printing below 59.41 at the completion of A. This reinforces that this move from the February lows has been corrective. How? Because the second set of 5 waves came back into the price territory of the first set, thereby, negating the possibility of an impulse structure.

ES

We had a half way decent range today of 16.75 points, but it was very tradable for a change with 3 nice swings. Volume came in stronger than yesterday. This makes 7 days of upside. Is it me, or is the last hour ramp job on low volume so blatantly obvious?

I have done something that I totally despise that MOST counters I see do regularly. That is gloss over the small stuff to get to the bigger picture. I am assuming that 3 (white) ends at the 956.25 H. Can't get a count up there, but I'm choosing to go with that.

We clearly had 5 waves outta the triangle and 5 from the 937.25 L. Who knows. If I need to change it again - I will.

We had a beautiful zigzag off the 956.25 H to complete A down. Notice from this 1m chart that this last squeeze higher is a corrective. Most people will assume that we finished 4 (white) down. The structure says differently. There is NO way to get around a corrective here. As noted on the chart, we came back into wave 1 territory and this disqualifies an impulse.

Be on the lookout for a big triangle or flat. We had 3 down with the zigzag, and now it appears we have 3 up with a steroid induced zigzag that should complete B. If a triangle, the range will narrow and trading will slow down. If a flat (my preference), expect a structure similar to the zigzag but with another 5 wave structure attached.

At their lowest the 100 lotters were around -41k, but finished about -20k. Both sizes covered nicely into the last 20 minutes.











What a beautiful structure and pattern. They turned this pig exactly at the 88.6%, completing a Bullish Bat pattern. Hope I wasn't the only one who got long down there. And for those that did, I hope you didn't bail at 48 like me!

The 88.6% is an extremely important ratio. Any serious student of ratio analysis should have it in their repertoire.

ES

ES had a range of 15.50 handles today and volume fell considerably. Most time-frames are showing negative divergence.

It is very hard to discern the count currently. My best guess is that we have finished 3 (white) and are in the process of working on a 4, however, that's not a certainty. We had a clear ABC down from the 940.75 H. From there it gets very messy.

Perhaps we are tracing out some sadistic B wave of an expanding flat. If that is the case, we would still have a C leg down. Who knows at this point.

Here is what I do know:

1.) This market is very overbought currently and in need of a breather.

2.) Notice how price is wedging. That is a clue that a pullback is imminent.

3.) We have reached a zone of resistance and the 1 bar daily projection of 950 could be considered met. It also appears that we may have had an ending diagonal at today's high (yes it counts in 3's).

Bottom line is that we have a pullback starting very soon. This should take care of 4 and set the stage for a 5th to complete a bigger A.

Lastly, don't forget we have a solar eclipse due tomorrow!

Crude

We changed to the September contract, so prices are a little different. I have to believe, based on the structure and price, that C finished.

The proportionality just doesn't look right for this to be a 4th compared to 2. I have changed my count to reflect this. If this is correct, this will also complete a bigger A down.

Crude pulled back today as expected, however, it was from higher prices, as it had another upleg left in it. We should be running into decent resistance and to nearly completing the B leg. Understand that B's can, and often do, become complex.

The 50% retrace is around 66 and the 61.8% sits at 67.61.

Weekend Chart Update #3

Here is my preferred big picture count. I believe that we have completed a double zigzag (Y) at the 956 high. It appears that we have finished an ABC structure at the 869 low, which I have labeled X. I am of the opinion that we are in the process of tracing a "triple zigzag", which consists of 3 sets of zigzag correctives with intervening X waves to separate them.

This is a rare pattern, but basically comes into play when a "double zigzag" (2 sets of zigzag correctives) has not retraced an adequate amount. 3 is the most that is allowed. When this structure is complete, then this bear rally will conclude. That assumes that I'm correct in my interpretation of the structure.

My alternate is at the bottom.

Friday was a smallish range day, putting in a small bodied candle (SPX was a doji). This was to be expected, if in fact, we were in a 4 wave (white).

It looks as though we finished a 3 (white) late Thursday. We may be tracing out another triangle (dotted yellow). We should know fairly quickly, maybe even by Sunday night globex, as it looks close to completion.

I would be surprised as wave 2 was a mess and alternation would make sense. Perhaps this turns out to be a flat...that's how I have my labels set. We will know soon enough.

When 4 completes, there should be one more 5 wave structure up to finish off A. At that point, we will begin correcting the move from the 865.25 L. Targets for this upcoming 5th are guessing games right now. It depends on what happens to this 4th. If you assume that 928 will be the low, then the 61.8% sits at 974.75. Due to the extension of the 3rd, it makes more sense to look at wave 1 equality, which is 19 handles. Currently this puts the target at 947 - pending 4's outcome.

This is a weekly OEX line on close chart. There are some interesting trendline fits. The dark gold lines come from a Fibonacci fan from the highs. Again some interesting fits.

The middle pane is a stochastics (5,3,3). The first thing that jumps out is the divergence that came from the June highs. That looks small compared to the potential divergence setting up.

I spent way to much of my Saturday looking at charts. I'm throwing this in to just let you be aware that there are valid bearish scenarios. We don't have to keep screaming higher.

This chart assumes that our highs finished an A and we are working on a B. What if this is an expanding B wave triangle? It's possible, though the probabilities are very low.

Another scenario that is possible. Assume again that we finished A. Now move your triangle labels over and start A where big A is. Another expanding triangle that would eventually call for higher prices, but they would certainly go lower first.

Again, low probability in my opinion. Keep an open mind and don't get married to a bias.